Mat Germain's Top 50 Tampa Bay Prospects - RaysUp

DeScript 271 Mat's Top 50 TB Rays Prospects - Copy

[00:00:00] Mark Corbett: Welcome to BaseballBiz On Deck. I am Mark Corbett and I am here today with Mr. Mat Germain. My gosh. I'm glad when he's here every week, uh, Hey Mat, how you doing, buddy? 

[00:00:16] Mat Germain: I'm doing great, mark and, and, uh, I'm, I'm shining like 50, basically. 

[00:00:21] Mark Corbett: 50 are are you 50 years old? Is that what you're saying? I'm almost 50

[00:00:26] Mat Germain: I'm 48. A Spry 48 is what I would call it 

[00:00:30] Mark Corbett: Now. There's another 50 you're talking about for today though. 

[00:00:33] Mat Germain: That's right. So we're going to go through the, uh, the top 50 Rays prospects today. And I think, uh, I think we can all agree that the Rays system is getting a lot of praise around MLB, , this off season.

[00:00:48] Mark Corbett: Yeah, they, you know, over the years, they, the farm system's gotten a lot of accolades. Um, uh, briefly before we started talking today, it was with Mat, I was mentioning that the show we did with Phil Coffin, which will be coming up soon on, um, on whatever the 572 cards from the 1959. Top season and he gives an essay on each one of them and then I was telling him about you.

[00:01:11] Mark Corbett: I said, Hey, I know a guy who does a lot of in depth looking at thing. I said, and Mat Germain, I said, this guy, I said, he digs deep. And I explained how deep This 50 prospects list and he goes, wow, that's it. Right. Wow. So Mat, can you remind folks about how you, uh, where you first dipped your toe into the water and what all you've done since you've been, uh, working with baseball sports?

[00:01:40] Mat Germain: Sure. Yeah, I started in the, in the 2000s, you know, the same way as a lot of people started, which is just, , getting to know fantasy baseball , and following the game that way and connecting things, , along the way , and making some contacts and getting, to the point where I was actually running a blog and, , and Interviewing players for the Toronto Blue Jays at the time, and then eventually that grew into getting into deeper and deeper and deeper leagues and eventually into dynasty baseball and anybody that's played that dynasty fantasy baseball.

[00:02:11] Mat Germain: If you're in a 30 team league like I was and you're going 40 prospects deep, you're getting to know a lot of the prospects along the way when you're going that deep for 30 teams and you can do the easy math, you know, that's 1200, , prospects that you have to cover and, , you know, it's, it's , meticulous in some ways.

[00:02:31] Mat Germain: Sometimes you'll focus on certain team systems because you, you know that they are doing a good job of scouting. And in other times you're going to actually, focus on guys because you hear of them or they're posted on certain sites. But either way, you're doing the research.

[00:02:45] Mat Germain: And that's always the way that I kind of, looked at it because when I was working for FanSided and SB Nation and writing about a lot of these prospects and making lists up eventually, , you have to throw material out there and to throw material out there. You have to do the research and to do the research.

[00:03:02] Mat Germain: You have to dig into the details. And so along the way, I picked up some things that I kind of focused on and noticed. And, and saw guys having success when they have certain tools and abilities. And I started watching more and more of the minor league games once they were available on, MLB. com and I'll MLB TV.

[00:03:21] Mat Germain: Um, so that's given me another Avenue. I watch as many highlights as I can, and I really enjoy the whole process of it. And I think I just got addicted once I started doing that into actually making these lists, because I think. Like I told you before the show, I think it's good to provide some hope to fans.

[00:03:39] Mat Germain: And I think every fan, you know, it starts the season. Everybody is even in the standings. Everybody has an equal chance, theoretically. And so what they want to know is what they should be looking for in season, why they should have hope. So you're kind of selling that story to them as to who's coming in each position.

[00:03:56] Mat Germain: And for baseball, there's a lot of positions. There's a lot of roles. It's interesting to see how it all shakes out by the time the season's done. 

[00:04:04] Mark Corbett: Well, I want to congratulate you on doing an excellent job this year with all that work with the Tampa Bay Rays and coming up with the top 50 prospects for 2025, because Mat, it shows, I mean, you've been digging, you dug deep, you, you've looked at these prospects, you looked at everything, you know, simple things as their gains, , what's been their batting averages, how have they done, what's gone on with their pitching, how's their fielding, all of those sorts of things, and from that, you were able to ascertain, , What you saw as the best, the top 50 prospects for the Tampa Bay Rays.

[00:04:36] Mark Corbett: And some of these guys, if y'all been listening to the show we've talked about in the past, Mat kind of gives you a bit more detail when he put this up on blue sky this past week, if you haven't checked it out, do so. And you can find Mat on blue sky at M a T G E R M a I N. BSKY dot social. So make sure you check that out.

[00:04:59] Mark Corbett: All right, Mat. Well, well further ado then let's get started. What you got, buddy. 

[00:05:04] Mat Germain: So at number 50, and I kind of want to start there because it paints a picture as to how good the list of players is, and the 50th guy on this list still has a chance to become a starter in the show. And it kind of alludes to, you know, the quality of the pitchers that are off the list as well.

[00:05:23] Mat Germain: They're kind of, you know, it's just shocking in some ways because the Rays do have such a deep system. So Ben Peoples he threw in double A last year , and he didn't throw the, the greatest of seasons I think he would tell you overall, but he showed glimpses of, of being able to be a workhorse on the mound.

[00:05:41] Mat Germain: And, and he's the type of guy that'll be able to get somewhere around 10 K per nine, he'll be able to give you, a four ERA or.

[00:05:51] Mat Germain: 1. 2 WHIP on average, depending on which way you want to focus on it. He's the kind of guy that has a pitch mix to stay in a starting role as long as possible to try to see if he can actually, , get enough swings and misses along the way as he gets a little bit higher and into the AAA. , to see if that could work out for him.

[00:06:10] Mat Germain: Now, we've seen with other guys that I would put in the same category as him, , guys like Tommy Romero, um, that have, that has come through in the past, or Kinney Rosenberg, where they've had to switch to relief role eventually to actually try to remain in them in, , in the show. , so Ben might take that kind of role, but he's still young enough, he's only 23, so there's a chance that he could, Stick on, in that role after that.

[00:06:32] Mat Germain: And so when we move up to 49, we get Jeremy Pilon, which is a, is a Canadian guy. So, you know, I'm going to give the Canadian guys some, some props. , But he's the kind of guy that you know, I actually watched some video of because I saw some that I follow a lot of the Canadian Baseball Network guys, and he was very, , highly promoted among their ranks as somebody to look for, because he has a lot of deception.

[00:06:55] Mat Germain: And so what I would say is he's using his left hand pitching side of things, , to his advantage, and I think that he's going to have a lot of deception. He's going to be a very, uh, Raw talent that they have to mold into whatever it is that they can get out of them. And they're very good at doing that.

[00:07:11] Mat Germain: So what I wanted to do is kind of see, okay, he played, he pitched in rookie ball last year for the majority of it, but then they threw him up into a ball right before the season ended and he just. Shown like a diamond. So that was kind of an eye opener where the work that they did in rookie ball was great, and he was able to actually put it into use at a time when the hitters were actually the hottest, uh, or most mature that they were going to be that season in a ball.

[00:07:38] Mat Germain: So I think he's a guy that can move very quickly if they turn him into a full time reliever. Still could be a starter. We'll see how it goes. He's so young that they can actually go either way. , After him, you've got a monster. He's six foot eight, Austin Vernon. A lot of the guys that I talk to on, , media outlets and, , on social media, they love this guy.

[00:07:59] Mat Germain: Uh, he's just intimidating on the mound. He's a big guy, , likes to get, , a lot of, , Swings and misses high in the zone. Doesn't exploit the lower parts of the zone the same way as you would imagine a guy his size does. , which is a little bit odd. Maybe that'll come eventually if he adds a pitch that, that gets him there.

[00:08:15] Mat Germain: Uh, but for now, , he's the kind of guy that you have to dream on a little bit because , the results haven't been Stellar when it comes to control and for a guy his size, that makes a lot of sense. He's still young enough to actually get there. , so those are the last three. So when you look at those three packages, you're noticing a trend mark and that's that pitching is, is so abundant, you know, from, I would say from the 30th position through to the 50th, that you can make a case for any one of them to be ranked, as high as 30 on this list.

[00:08:50] Mark Corbett: And you do paint a pretty good picture here too. When I'm looking at what you've said on a blue sky with this talking about, Oh, let's see the deception rates to me that that says, Oh, I would love to see this gap pitch. That means he is confusing the picture about where that's gone. Ball's going to be.

[00:09:07] Mark Corbett: He's able to place it where they don't think it's going to be. So, uh, those are important parts of the game. And I'm glad to see. Yeah, since pitchers are such a large amount of the game, I'm not surprised to see you have so many of them here at that point. 

[00:09:22] Mat Germain: Yeah, the, the interesting thing with it, and the reason that I point that out as well, Is that it since 2021, the Rays have been focusing on very early or at the top of the draft, getting the top end hitters that they can find, or that they've scouted.

[00:09:38] Mat Germain: And, and they're getting them with, with louder tools than they used to. So the Xavier Isaacs, the Carson Williams, all those guys, and they're doing the same thing. They, we just had the international market,. The international market opened today. So the Rays announced a bunch of signings and the majority of the top end guys that they signed were position players.

[00:09:56] Mat Germain: They were not pitchers. And the reason being is that there's so much volatility in the pitching that the Rays are actually. willing to bank on their development more than on the loud tools that they have in the draft, which can sometimes come back to bite you when you draft them so early. So it's an interesting thing anyway, but it continues.

[00:10:16] Mat Germain: So at 47, we got Nate Knowles, who's the guy, he's the first draft guy that I mentioned here, , that , they drafted, , just last year. , and he's the kind of guy that can actually, Have a bit of a helium aspect is what we would call it. As if he comes out swinging the first, uh, The first season that he's in the minors and actually does really well.

[00:10:35] Mat Germain: You could hear him, his name in the top 30. That's how good his stuff actually is. Uh, it's just a Mater of seeing it on the field and actually seeing him live. So all I've seen from him is his videos and things that you see on Twitter of his college highlights. Uh, but I haven't seen him actually play in the minor.

[00:10:53] Mat Germain: So I kind of, it's a skeptical ranking of 47 saying, okay, we'll see how it goes this year. Uh, but the talent is definitely there. , 

[00:11:01] Mat Germain: After him, we have Ty Cummings. He's like, he's the last piece in the Randy Arozarena, , trade, , so he came from the Mariner system, and he has an easy, smooth delivery, is what I call it.

[00:11:12] Mat Germain: It just, it seems like he's not even putting any effort into it, and I'm sure that's what the Rays were drooling about when , they, , Decided to bring him aboard because they have a tendency of being able to get those kinds of guys to keep their blood pressure low in tense moments and actually shine and get a lot more out of them overall while keeping them in the zone.

[00:11:33] Mat Germain: Some of the problem, pictures that the Rays have had over the years are the ones that they can't really zone in as much as they would like. So I think Ty fits that mold perfectly, and he should do really well in the Rays system. 

[00:11:45] Mat Germain: TJ Fontaine is a guy who had ranked 50th last year, and he's a lefty. I think , there's a that he'll be switched into a starting role eventually if they need it or if they have room for him or if they think his ceiling there is really high.

[00:11:58] Mat Germain: I just think that, , last year he was so pumped in the playoffs. He was doing great with the biscuits. There's a Chance an outside chance that we see him in 2025 more than likely would be 2026 though. , 27 if they make him into a starter. , 

[00:12:13] Mat Germain: Alexander Alberto. A lot of people thought he was gonna take get taken into rule five and he's another 6 foot 8 guy.

[00:12:20] Mat Germain: The guy. Rays love those tall pitchers and they just, , they want to bank on them actually getting, a lot of intimidation and a lot of, , downhill, , Working pitches, basically 

[00:12:31] Mark Corbett: it's a, it's a release point, Mat. 

[00:12:33] Mat Germain: Yeah. They like the North South, right? They really do. They, they kind of zoned in on that event a few years ago.

[00:12:39] Mat Germain: It makes sense when you're pitching coaches actually as tall as Kyle Snyder is. So, you know, it's one of those things. So there you go. So from 44, all the way to 50, nothing but pitchers. , and honestly, you can make a case for 44 being 50, 50 being 44, I like to group them in groups of 10 really when you're looking at it where, , the ceiling and the floor normally are very similar when you're looking at that kind of range.

[00:13:09] Mark Corbett: That sounds like a good, strong future for the Rays in pitching. And it's like so many things with these guys being so young as prospects. I look forward to seeing them in a Rays uniform, but quite often I wonder if they'll wind up on another team before they make it to the bigs.

[00:13:28] Mat Germain: Exactly. So at 43, we have JD Gonzalez was a catcher they got from , , the Padres and the Jason Adam deal. And, to me, the Rays have to do that kind of thing in terms of bringing catchers in from other organizations, because they've they've had a hard time identifying catchers that can develop into really, really, really high.

[00:13:47] Mat Germain: They've been okay with the medium side of things like the Luke Miley's, the, uh, uh, you know, if you want to look back in time in terms of the guys that they brought in, like Nick Schufo, who probably had the skills to be a high end catcher. He just never was able to put it all together. Um, You know, JD Gonzalez represents a guy that has a great defensive makeup.

[00:14:09] Mat Germain: So the big question with the Rays and what they've had problems with in the past, but are having more success with now is how far can they take his hitting abilities to make him into a more like number one catcher. So right now he's like halfway there. But there's signs that his defensive abilities are actually going to be high enough and his leadership that he could be envisioned as a high end catcher at some point in time.

[00:14:36] Mat Germain: So he'll be anchoring the lower parts of the Rays Minor system, , behind the plate. , 

[00:14:40] Mat Germain: after him at 42, we have Jack Lines, another, , prospect that they just drafted. And to me, he's one of my favorite picks, and he's the reason why they were able to let, , Another draft pick from that, that year kind of, you know, they get, they offered him a lot of money and he decided to walk.

[00:14:58] Mat Germain: So a little bit of his extra bonus went to Jack Lines, , because abilities that he has, if he had banked on himself going to college, he probably would have been a much higher draft pick than it was, which I think he, they selected him in the 12th round. Um, I think he's more of a, you know, a guy that you can look at as, as, as a potential.

[00:15:18] Mat Germain: in the draft, uh, if he actually puts it all together with the skill levels that he has. So his, his defensive abilities, get a lot of praise, his hit tool shows a lot of promise. And because he's from Canada, uh, there's always that thing about coming from the North. I think we've heard about it in a Rays system before with Garrett Whitley and other guys, when they come from the Northern States or from Canada, uh, because of the seasons and the lack of playing time, a lot of times that they get in some of the, Uh, leagues that they grow up in, you expect a little bit more raw abilities.

[00:15:51] Mat Germain: , Larry Walker was the same thing where they had to basically mold them and teach them how to play baseball together in his case. And he praises about it, you know, he jokes about it. So, uh. So yeah, so that's Jack Lines at 42. At 41, you got Keyshawn Askew. He's, uh, one of the guys that they got from the Mets, a left hander.

[00:16:08] Mat Germain: He's got a really funky delivery that's fun to watch. Um, you know, the I was split on Keyshawn Askew. I I didn't know exactly where I was going to put him. I had him for a while, a little bit lower, I had him for a while, a little bit higher. He's one of those volatile arms that I think the control is going to always be an issue until he really figures out how to be repeatable with his delivery and release point.

[00:16:31] Mat Germain: So he's got that kind of funkiness to him that you can see why he would be really effective in the show, but you can also see why he would get hurt, hit hurt. So it'll be interesting to see how he finishes it off, you know, and, and how he actually. He keeps plugging away in a system that's getting very loaded at the upper levels of AA and AAA when it comes to relief pitching.

[00:16:55] Mat Germain: Um, and that's basically how they've used him so far. So last year was a bit of a down year. He had a little, much fewer K per nines as he got higher in the levels. So that's why the skepticism is there.

[00:17:06] Mat Germain: TJ Nichols at 40 to finish off the, the 40 to 50 range. , he's 22 years old. I think he'll, you know, probably another three years in the minors.

[00:17:16] Mat Germain: , really, really, really interesting guy. He finished the season extremely strong, never gave up more than two earned runs, , in over the last, , nine outings that he put up. , and in that time, I think he only walked seven over 48 innings, , while striking out three. 43. So that kind of opens up your eyes in terms of what he's capable of and now you're looking for more basically next year , when he jumps up a level.

[00:17:42] Mat Germain: And, you know, a plus is, is always gonna be a lot tougher for some of these guys that have a lot of success in, in a ball. Um, but really the big test for him, I think is gonna be double A and, and to keep, uh, getting that level of success there. 

[00:17:57] Mat Germain: Um, 39, we got Gregory Berrios is a shortstop that he's defensive minded and, and we knew that when, when everybody's acquired him, uh, you know, it's from Milwaukee system, uh, he did a lot better with Milwaukee than he's done with the Rays when it comes to, uh, um, being consistent offensively, but.

[00:18:18] Mat Germain: To his credit, the decay rate has always been great, always under 15 percent, uh, doesn't show much power, but he's got, you know, that kind of ability that you can see a utility role come into play where that they ends up in AAA because his defensive abilities are, are pretty good. pretty solid, you know, at various positions, you can say, okay, well, we can have him on the bench.

[00:18:41] Mat Germain: He offers a little bit of speed. He's a guy that they'll steal about 30 to 50 bases in the in the minor league season. So you can envision him being really useful off the bench and, uh, and the rays have that potential. All the way through the system, Mark. It's ridiculous when it comes to speed and, uh, ability to move around the infield.

[00:19:02] Mat Germain: Like that combination is just, and you'll hear a few more names, uh, when we get up to the higher levels. 

[00:19:09] Mark Corbett: Let me, let me pause here. Just, I'm curious. Uh, I was surprised when I started taking a closer look at baseball a few years back at the, at the number of pitchers that are on a roster. 

[00:19:20] Mark Corbett: What's, what's kind of the average number of pitchers on a roster? 

[00:19:24] Mat Germain: So it depends at the level and, and, and also you got to remember that some of these franchises are also used as rehab, uh, you know, franchises or, or affiliates. where the rehab center will be there. So there's always going to be more pitchers.

[00:19:39] Mat Germain: You're right, then there will be position players. And in some cases, because they're working out so many of those pitchers, they'll also carry a lot more catchers. So a good example would be in AAA. I think last year at some point, the Rays had five catchers in Durham, and a lot of that has to do with being able to work out these guys and being able to have all the programs that they run, uh, you know, as they're doing to read the last parts of the rehabs and on the side or wherever it is that they're throwing, they need somebody to be able to guide them through things.

[00:20:10] Mat Germain: And, um, a lot of times, you know, you need the extra And Uh, the extra guys to receive and you don't want to put an outfielder back there if you can avoid it. Right. So, uh, so yeah, so the roster makeups vary by, by affiliates based on the needs of that affiliate. Um, generally speaking, I think when you look at MLB, it's always going to be half and half.

[00:20:32] Mat Germain: So AAA tries to lean that way as well, but maybe you'll have a few more pitchers than you do position players because of what I just said. That's just generic, uh, general terms. 

[00:20:44] Mark Corbett: Well, that's, yeah, that's what I was looking for. So, so give us the rest, my friend. What, what else? 

[00:20:49] Mat Germain: So we got Owen Wilde at 38.

[00:20:50] Mat Germain: He's one of my favorite, you know, outliers. The one that nobody speaks of. I think he's, , he's one of the guys to keep a really, really, really close eye on because he, you know, when you're as consistently, , in the zone and able to show com Matd, From the time you step into the pros through, , the amount of innings that he has under his belt, that gets to be impressive.

[00:21:13] Mat Germain: So last year he had a 252 ERA and a 3 FIP over his last, uh, eight games started. And to me that, that showed a lot in terms of what to expect next year that was at the A plus level. So he deserves a spot in double A in my opinion, but whether or not they feel he's ready and can out, , I would shine the competition that will be really heavy when they get to spring training, remains to be seen.

[00:21:38] Mat Germain: But I definitely think he's one of the guys that could jump up into the top 20 Rays prospects, uh, you know, mid season, if not by end season.

[00:21:46] Mat Germain: After him, we got 37, Bobby Seymour. You might see him. In 2025, Bobby gets no love. I don't understand why, um, you know, the, the K rate to me, Bobby Seymour is a lot like, uh, Logan Morrison.

[00:22:02] Mat Germain: He's just one of those guys that you, the defense won't shine. He he'll always hit a lot of home runs and with a lot of power, and he'll always hit enough that you want him in the lineup. So why is that bad? You know, look at his WRC plus or his weighted runs created. You know, in 2021, it was 148 and you can look all the way through.

[00:22:24] Mat Germain: It's always been consistently high, well above the average. And, and I think he got punished because they got him into the system at such a late age that he's always been a little bit older for his level. And it's not right for people to do that and to punish him for it. He did extremely well last year in AAA and in AA at an age that is fine for those levels.

[00:22:46] Mat Germain: I mean, when you've got a weighted, , on base average of 405 in AAA. To me that, you know, that shows that you can play, , you can play that level. So , they'll definitely start them in triple a next year, but if they need, for some reason, they need a bat to ignite something , in the lineup. A lot, like I was saying about Austin Shenton last year, like Bobby Seymour is ready, , to kind of get that shot and see what he can do.

[00:23:08] Mat Germain: So that's Bobby Seymour at 37, uh, 36, we've got Tanner Murray. I think. The reason he's there more than anything is because I watched the playoffs in, in, in Montgomery and he was anchoring that lineup and he was doing a great job at it. The at bats he was putting up were very, very mature and impressive.

[00:23:29] Mat Germain: Uh, no poise under pressure. Uh, he can do a little bit of everything and I think he's had so many nagging injuries along the way and, and odd playing time at different positions that he probably should have been playing on occasion, uh, that he doesn't get as much love , as some of the other guys, might get.

[00:23:46] Mat Germain: , and so his K percentage is always going to be, or has been, you know, solid, his weighted on base is usually pretty good as well. And I think he has the potential to. To take a lot of people by surprise. So even though I don't have him in the top 30, I wish I could fit him in. I think he, could earn a role with the Rays.

[00:24:08] Mat Germain: Before people expect him to. Jacob Matz is another guy that the Rays drafted last, , last year. Uh, he's got a four pitch mix, really, really high floor. I like the pick. I think he's, one of the guys that they got in the draft where you can really see, uh, some potential of being a starter and, they need as many of those guys as they can get, cause we know injuries happen.

[00:24:29] Mat Germain: Uh, so it'll be interesting to see how he handles a ball. I think he's going to be one of those guys. They, they try to. to push along fairly quickly, uh, because he is a little bit more, um, well equipped, I guess, to handle the lower parts of the miners and, and dominate while there. After him, at 34, we got Mike Vasil.

[00:24:47] Mat Germain: I was pushing for him to get taken by the Rays, uh, into Rule 5. And, uh, and they didn't actually take him, but they ended up trading for him. So, it was one of those things that I kind of lucked out. I think the Rays will do a lot of good with him. Uh, I think it will change the way that he approaches the pitch mix.

[00:25:05] Mat Germain: , and I like the size. I think he's going to be, one of the guys to look for in AAA if he doesn't start with the Rays. I think they, there's a thing where he might have to be on the active roster when they start the season because of how he was acquired, but we'll see how that goes and what they can work out, , depending on how he looks in spring.

[00:25:28] Mat Germain: Uh, Logan Workman is next on the list at 33. , I think a lot of people will be shocked because most of us expected Logan to be taken into row five as well. , and we're in that range now of the top 50 where guys can really, you know, you can, their next step is the show. It's not really, , okay. What, , how is he going to develop?

[00:25:47] Mat Germain: Logan Workman is developed. I mean, you look at the, the amount of innings that he's thrown all the way through 2024. He had 123 innings in, in AA and 23 in Triple A. So you give him a half season in triple A. This coming year, and he would be more than ready to step into the show and and give you some innings if you need them how he ends up looking, we'll see the reason he's not in the top 30 is basically because the batting average and balls and play is a little bit high, 

and I 

[00:26:17] Mat Germain: think that's probably what scared off some teams.

[00:26:20] Mat Germain: Uh, for bringing him aboard and committing to him. Having said that, he's shown a really, really, really good, , knack for getting out of trouble. , and being close enough to the zone that he can get guys out when he's, when he needs to. , And I think , the results, show, that essentially, so you look at his ERA, it was 296 and his FIP is about .354 so he's overachieving based on the, the ERA, but the FIP is telling the story that he's more of a, you know, mid threes to four ERA kind of guy that you can expect. Um, and the K per nine is about 10 with a walk rate of 2 consistently. So I think that kind of tells me a lot more information than to say, okay, is he going to actually Shine when he gets into the show, you know, it depends on what you think shine is, you know, is getting awkward hits here and there.

[00:27:16] Mat Germain: Okay. Yeah. Is that better than giving up big home runs all the time? It depends. It depends on how many hits he gives up before. And I think Logan has that kind of ability of, like I said, getting himself out of trouble. So I like him. I didn't have cool Wilcox in my top. 50, uh, that's one name that'll surprise people.

[00:27:35] Mat Germain: And part of it was because of that, cause I'm not sure. He would be, um, in a position to actually avoid as many bats as he could in the key moments. Um, he has to work a little bit harder. Uh, Nathan Fleming, another Canadian kid. So that's the third one already on the list. Yeah. A hard nosed catcher. He's got a lot of, um, uh, people cheering him on that have seen him, that, that just praise the makeup.

[00:27:59] Mat Germain: Like they, they see this guy as the hardest worker on the team. Uh, they think that he's going to be, uh, you A very special talent. Once he develops, um, I'm just looking forward to seeing what he can do at the lower parts of the levels. He's going to take a long time to develop. It's only 17 years old, and I think you're going to see him actually, or actually, he might have turned 18 in the offseason, , but you're going to see him.

[00:28:21] Mat Germain: You know, develop slowly as catchers do, but always with a little level of intrigue, because like along with JD Gonzalez, he represents, , two of , the catching talents that they've brought in that you're kind of peeking at going, ah, , there's interesting tools here. And part of him is that he was the second highest, , exit velocity among.

[00:28:41] Mat Germain: Among the drafted prospects this year. So 112 miles per hour, he hit the, that's, that's, that's a lot of power. The Rays is love Mike Zanino. And he would be in that kind of mold when you're looking at that, you know, kind of exit velocity at a, you know, as a 17 year old 

[00:29:00] Mark Corbett: crackers, Mac, 

[00:29:00] Mat Germain: you know what I mean?

[00:29:02] Mat Germain: That's intriguing. 

[00:29:03] Mark Corbett: Yeah, I'd say so. You got my imagination going here. Cause like you were saying earlier, catching is one place where the Rays seemed like you always need help. So this is. This I'm excited to see how this young man does. 

[00:29:15] Mat Germain: He's a, yeah. And if you ever watch an interview with him, he's very, very poised and, and, uh, well grounded, I guess the best way to put it.

[00:29:24] Mat Germain: Matthew Etzel is the next guy on the list at 31. He's a very toolsy outfielder that he got from the Orioles. I always see him as more of a Johnny Damon guy, but without as good of a hit tool as Johnny Damon had. He's got a lot of speed, can get on base. I think that he'll move around the outfield constantly.

[00:29:44] Mat Germain: The only question is, is he going to actually develop enough power to earn a full time role? It remains to be seen. I think, you know, he's only 22, so you have to give him a lot of leeway in terms of growing into the Mat body and say, okay, well, how does it develop, you know, by the time he's 25. So, you know, he's a guy that along with, uh, the Rays system, when you look at it overall.

[00:30:10] Mat Germain: I think he'll actually, , be one of the speedsters that takes the rollover from Chandler Simpson in double a because he stole 45 bases last year. Um, so, , like I said before, the Rays has so much, so much speed in the system that it's, it's really sickening. If you were to nickname the Rays system as a whole, it would be road runners.

[00:30:31] Mat Germain: With a, with a dash of power, right? Um, we're stepping into the top 30, Mark. So we got Trevor Martin at number 30. Trevor Martin was the darling of the first half of the season and the minors. He was just, he looked like super strong. Um, through 122 innings overall, he has a good fastball and slider combination and really high strikeout rate.

[00:30:57] Mat Germain: I think that the floor for Trevor Martin is very high. Um, he, you know, you try to look at the jump from a plus to double a and not get too down on guys when they struggle a little bit. So 2025 is going to be the season that he takes on and I'm hoping we see him. you know, tackle double A with gusto. I think Shane Boz went through that a little bit where he, you know, there was that a little bit of a drop off in double A when he initially got there and then the next season started and he just dominated from the get go.

[00:31:30] Mat Germain: So we'll see how Trevor Martin handles it. Uh, I'm not expecting Shane Boz style levels, but you know, anywhere, anything above 10k per nine and, and somewhere around 2. 5, uh, walks per nine, it'll be fine. The Rees would take it. With, because he has such a fastball slider combination, you can, you can see him potentially going to the relief role as well.

[00:31:51] Mat Germain: So I just throw that out there for him. Émilien Pitre is the next guy on the list, the 29th, the fourth Canadian on the top 50. You have to throw that out there because it's really interesting. They drafted and then acquired so much Canadian talent. Uh, but Émilien Pitre is a little bit different where he, When when they completed the draft and he went down to a ball and we got to see him play, he just had like really amazing at bats, really strong bat to ball abilities and be able to work counts, not afraid to work deep in the counts.

[00:32:28] Mat Germain: Sprayed the ball around, made contact when he had to, uh, just kind of was pesky, I guess, as in terms of a hitter right away and never let, uh, let that up as he was playing through the game. So that really kind of stood out to me when I was watching him play for the, the river dogs. Um, I think that, you know, defensively, he's very solid.

[00:32:48] Mat Germain: I think that he's going to move quickly and I think that the, the, uh, the floor is pretty high with him, so that's why he is in the top 30. Um, and I think that. He's going to get pushed really because the Rays are promoting so much of their infielders coming up in, you know, the next two seasons, uh, that he's going to actually move fairly quickly through it.

[00:33:08] Mat Germain: So I'm really interested to see what he's going to do. Having said that, once he gets to the upper levels, he's going to have to do a lot to beat the talent ahead of them. So that's why I have ETA still held back a little bit as 2028. Gotcha. 

[00:33:21] Mat Germain: Duncan David is next and I'm a big fan of Duncan's. I think that he, he doesn't get any notice whatsoever and he doesn't give up, a lot of home runs.

[00:33:33] Mat Germain: He strikes out guys. He's a really good mound presence. It's just that he doesn't have that that elite pitch that people go. Wow, you know, that's the the pitch that I want to zone in on. But what I saw more than anything this year, this year that just passed was an ability to actually provide consistent.

[00:33:53] Mat Germain: Innings in double a and that to me like I said before with Trevor Martin is is a big sign And he was able to grab it right away to the point where you're like, oh, okay Well, this guy is actually able to be one of the front runners in double a not just a back end guy in double a so We'll see how 2025 goes Uh, I think that, you know, 2024 was more about adding innings and he's, he's jumped from 80 innings in 23 all the way up to 135 in 24.

[00:34:20] Mat Germain: So that's a, that's a really healthy jump for a pitcher to take. And so there's no holding back innings. He's ready to go. And so With the fresh off season and, and some seasoning and double a already 50 innings under his belt there, I expect him to have a really strong season. So if he was able to find that extra pitch that gets him a little bit more swing and miss.

[00:34:45] Mat Germain: You know, he's a guy that could actually push for a, for a call up at some point, if he was needed, um, 

[00:34:52] Mat Germain: Trevor Harrison, probably one of the talents that people would point out to the most when you're talking about the lower parts of the system, uh, as a pitching talent that could actually, you know, become a front runner.

[00:35:05] Mat Germain: And the starter. Um, he's one of the guys that had, uh, one of the more dominant rookie or a ball, um, perfor Matces. Um, I think that you're looking at the last seven starts that he made there. There's 34 strikeouts in 32 innings. And he maintained a 278, uh, ERA. So I, I think that he's ready to kind of tackle a little bit more.

[00:35:29] Mat Germain: And like I said with, uh, Duncan David, who added a lot of innings last year. For, for Trevor, this upcoming year is going to be more about adding innings. And continuing to refine his four pitches that he uses on the mound. So really interested to see what this guy can do. He's only 19. Uh, there's no rush for him to move through the system at lightning speed.

[00:35:50] Mat Germain: They're going to take their time with him. 

[00:35:53] Mat Germain: Um, Mac Horvath. Utility player. , I think his ETA is, coming up, 2026 is what I have. He's basically battling with Tanner Murray, , for that kind of utility role. Uh, and also Cooper Kinney, um, which I'll talk about a little bit later. And, uh, Curtis Mead.

[00:36:11] Mat Germain: Those are the guys that I would say are, are kind of duking it out for, for bench roles or playing time at the upper levels. 

[00:36:19] Mark Corbett: I want to go ahead. I noticed that you say Mr. Horvath here is a prototypical dirtbag. What is that? 

[00:36:27] Mat Germain: Right, so whenever you watch the games, there's always that guy that has the dirty uniform.

[00:36:31] Mat Germain: Yeah And Taylor Walls used to be that kind of guy, and when he was in the Rays system, where every time you looked at him, he was just dirty, just all the time dirty, whether it's because he's stealing bases, he's throwing himself on the ground, he's rolling around when he's making plays, always seems to have that extra dirt on him compared to everybody else.

[00:36:49] Mat Germain: So, and it just means, you know, They seem to just enjoy the game with a little bit more, uh, shine than the rest of the guys. Yeah. I think it's a great skill to have. You want the guys to love the game and to be infectious. Um, who's the guy that I would say was like that Dustin Pedroia would kind of fit that kind of name as well.

[00:37:13] Mat Germain: Um, yeah. So he has speed to spare is what I like to say, like what I wrote up. The Rays system is just. Full of those guys, so you can't really say that's a full time asset, but because his versatility is so Important when you're looking at that last guy on the bench You know you want that guy that can cover the outfield and the infield if you can find it And I think Hugh will Be that kind of player.

[00:37:39] Mat Germain: Um, so if they're trying to add more seasoning for a guy, let's say Tanner Murray is, is not ready for the show yet, or Curtis Meade is still struggling and they want to give a guy a shot on the bench, then Mac would be that kind of guy. More than likely he gets plucked by another team in the same way that Miles Mastroboni got plucked.

[00:37:57] Mat Germain: Um, and that's who I would compare him with the most in terms of playing ability and style. Uh, not a power hitter at all, but he could surprise some people, you know, here and there. 

[00:38:09] Mat Germain: 25 is a guy that I think a lot of people have forgotten about, and I really like what he's done since he was drafted, and he's a really young shortstop, might be the second best defensive player in the Rays system after Carson Williams.

[00:38:25] Mat Germain: So that's saying a lot. And, uh, and when you're 18 years old and you steal 51 bases and you have that kind of defensive ability at the key position, more people should be paying attention to you then. And I think that's what, you know, people miss with Adrian is they're just looking at the overall package of, Oh, well, his W way to runs is under a hundred.

[00:38:47] Mat Germain: Uh, he doesn't have a high average. He doesn't have a high OBP. He was 18 years old in A ball and concentrating on trying to, you know, get his bat going. So, give him a season or two. I think that, you know, the next level for him is definitely going to be A plus Now that Carson's probably moving up to AAA and everybody else moves up.

[00:39:06] Mat Germain: You know, a level, uh, but I, I really hope that at some point in time they can get him the work that he needs to improve that bat because the rest of his tools are just so impressive that he could, he could really be the, the prototypical helium prospect that all of a sudden everybody is just raving about.

[00:39:26] Mat Germain: Um, but having said that there's always the fear that the hit tool never develops. So there's that, you know, hit and miss there. So I'm banking, I'm giving him a year, basically this year to say, okay, well, what can you do? And we'll see how it goes at the end of the year. Um, 

[00:39:42] Mat Germain: Joe Rock is, is next. And I, I know we talked about him last year.

[00:39:46] Mat Germain: Um, I, he would be higher on the list if he could just get more swing and miss than he's had. I think he was working. Constantly last year, uh, the entire season on trying to refine what was working, what wasn't, and, and it was just a lot of, uh, hit and miss in terms of what he wanted to do by the end of the season, I think he got there.

[00:40:07] Mat Germain: So I'm really curious to see how they use them and how quickly he can get a shot in the show. Like I say in the write up, I think that there's a lot of similarities to how, uh, Mason Montgomery's development went. So, don't be surprised if they, you know, if there's an injury, there's something that happens.

[00:40:25] Mat Germain: They end up using him in the relief role, and he has a similar kind of success as Mason had, uh, in that role. Because, he just, to me, you know, he has the tools there to actually, impact the game in a really positive way. And, uh, I liked the way that he throws the ball. 

[00:40:41] Mat Germain: Dominic Keegan is next on the list at 23.

[00:40:45] Mat Germain: And for some people that'll be a little bit too low. Um, I just think that there's some fears there, because if you're going to not have him behind the plate, which some people are saying he will be, some people are saying he's not, I'm not in a catcher and pitchers meetings. I don't know how he calls the game.

[00:41:01] Mat Germain: I don't know what they like and don't like. So I can't presume to know one way or the other, um, how great of a catcher he actually is. What I see is improvements in terms of, of blocking and pass balls, so that's great. Uh, that's something that you definitely want to see. And I know the arm strength is there, it's just the accuracy.

[00:41:21] Mat Germain: there for him to nab base dealers. And I'll tell that kind of hones in, then you can't really call him, you know, a full time catcher. 

[00:41:29] Mat Germain: And so there, there's a chance that he might end up, you know, at first base a little bit or, or somewhere else, uh, maybe left field, but I think that the bat will play, so nobody questions that.

[00:41:41] Mat Germain: It's just, will it play enough for the position that he's auditioning for when he's up against Trey Morgan and Xavier Isaac, 

[00:41:49] Mark Corbett: right? Jeez. 

[00:41:51] Mat Germain: So, you know, there, there's a lot of risk there. So that's why he's outside the top 20. Um, I really liked the player. I liked the, the potential that he has. If he does stick behind the plate, I think that he could become a really key cog for the Rays if that were to be able to be, You know, the way that, that it turns out.

[00:42:11] Mat Germain: So I hope that my ranking is way too low, but a long story short, 

[00:42:18] Mat Germain: after that, we got Paul Gervase, who's like, I don't even know if that's exactly how you say the name. I'm just putting it out there in that way, but he's the six foot 10. Mark, like how many six foot 10 pitchers do you see in system? It's just amazing.

[00:42:31] Mat Germain: The amount of tall guys that 

[00:42:33] Mark Corbett: monsters from the mound, Mat, I'll tell you what, 

[00:42:37] Mat Germain: I want to see a mound meeting between him and Kyle Snyder. And they're just looking eye to eye. And you're like, those guys are six 10. And then, you know, Taylor walls goes up and then gets part of it. And he's like a foot lower than both of them.

[00:42:51] Mat Germain: Oh gosh. 

[00:42:52] Mark Corbett: Yeah. That, that, that's, that would make for an interesting image. 

[00:42:56] Mat Germain: Exactly. So Paul is a little bit different than the other guys that I mentioned before in that he has a little bit more seasoning than the other guys in terms of the innings pitch down in the minors or the outings, and he did it with the Mets.

[00:43:09] Mat Germain: So it's hard to tell exactly how they're going to be able to continue refining his stuff, but I can tell you what. What he's shown so far with the Rays system, whatever they did worked because he was almost at 16 K per nine with a 1. 5 walk per nine, uh, in a short period of time that they had him aboard, like he just rocked it.

[00:43:31] Mat Germain: And I watched some of those outings and I'm telling you right now that if the rays are able to get that consistently from him, he will be in the pen before 2025 is done and, and he will be a key piece of that pen. Um, I really, really, really like. His potential. I think if the consistency is there in terms of his delivery and the result, he has a chance to be the Rays version of Mason Miller.

[00:43:56] Mat Germain: That's how much I like Paul Gervase. Um, having said that, like I said, because it was such a short period of time with the Rays, you know, you have to mitigate some excitement with some trepidation. So that's why he's not actually in the top 20. Um, 

[00:44:14] Mat Germain: One of the guys he just acquired from the A's is Will Simpson, and he's, everybody I talk to that follows their system is telling me that he's only going to be a first baseman, but knowing the Rays system, there's no way that he can be a first baseman.

[00:44:27] Mat Germain: So I'm, I'm just, I'm stuck trying to see him as a left fielder. I'm told that he wouldn't be able to handle it very well, but. We saw the Rays handle, you know, Xavier Isaac and turn him into a viable potential left fielder. , Will Simpson, the jury is out. Could be a first, uh, baseman, could be a left fielder.

[00:44:46] Mat Germain: What I do know, , from talking to people is that they're very, very strong in his hit tool abilities. So, it's not to say it's elite, but it's strong. It's, it's above average. So, the Rays really banked on the bat there when they, they went and acquired him. Not a lot of power for those positions overall in terms of home runs, but there is a lot of extra base power, which is also fine.

[00:45:11] Mat Germain: The rays are fine with those kinds of, uh, of numbers. They don't necessarily have to be, uh, over the fence. I mean, we see Yandy Diaz and his exit velocity. The rays are fine if you're, if you're able to do it in other ways. Um, But his weighted on base has been above 400 for a lot of time from 2021 onwards.

[00:45:30] Mat Germain: So you do have to open your eyes and say, okay, uh, through that. That's great that he gets on base. His ISO has been anywhere from 200 to 300. So you're looking at, wow. Okay. Well, that's, that's great. That's also consistent, and the K rate's been consistently below 25 percent through all that. So there's intrigue there with Will Simpson, and I'm giving him a lot of, um, a lot of credit because of that, even though he wasn't really one of the top ranked players for the A's, in their top 30.

[00:46:01] Mat Germain: So I, I think there's more there to be seen than what's being advertised before. So that's the top 21 to 50. What are your thoughts, Mark? 

[00:46:11] Mark Corbett: I am amazed at the amount of talent that we're seeing in there. They, I'm glad to hear some strength with some catchers who actually got some pop to their bat as well.

[00:46:20] Mark Corbett: I like that. Uh, I I'm excited. I'm I'm looking here at some of these young folks and who is that? One young gentleman. Is it, uh, Nathan flewEllen, you know, what a catcher he's 18. Now, geez, when the six foot one, there's. It's going to be exciting time, Mat. 

[00:46:39] Mat Germain: Yeah, that's part of the fun of watching this. And, and once you actually dig in, you write these lists and you do the, the bit more homework and watch a little bit more of the games.

[00:46:49] Mat Germain: Uh, it gets exciting year to year to see some of those guys have success and beat the odds. 

[00:46:54] Mark Corbett: Well. I mean, you, over the last few years, you have said a name. I said, oh, okay, well, I got to watch for that guy. It may, it may be a year or two before I see him pop up, uh, on the screen of everybody else talking about him.

[00:47:07] Mark Corbett: And I was like, damn, that's right, Mat. I was saying that, and so I started really looking closely to anybody that you brought up on the show and Mat, this is exciting. Some of the ones you've got here, I know I'm going to be digging deeper into the, uh, the system, watching these folks come up. 

[00:47:25] Mat Germain: Perfect segue into Cooper Kinney, uh, because, , he's a guy that actually has a lot more potential than he's shown so far.

[00:47:33] Mat Germain: He was limited a little bit in playing time last year, , because of injuries. I think there's a lot to like about what Cooper does. He's always renowned to be a, a leader on the team. They look to him to actually, Uh, you know, set the tone in a lot of ways. , he's got a great approach at the plate, puts up good at bats.

[00:47:51] Mat Germain: I think there's a lot of power in his bat, , that hasn't shown up, , in game to the level where it will once he actually gets more at bats and more, , playing time. , so I think I'm really excited to see, uh, what he's able to do in double A. Uh, I know that, You can get there and you can struggle and you can have a half season or whatever that actually is an adjustment period.

[00:48:16] Mat Germain: So what I'll be looking at for Cooper is in the second half of 2025. Is he able to take off from that point onwards and actually be comfortable? Assuming he does start the year in AA. He may start in A plus for a little bit and then get the jump after the fact. Uh, once he gets his legs under him. But I'm really excited.

[00:48:35] Mat Germain: He's a first base, third base guy. You could say he's more of a second baseman. A little bit like Curtis Mead. But a much better defensive player. So, those are the three positions you can envision him playing, in double A or in triple A. Um, I think that he's definitely going to be somebody that you hear a lot more about.

[00:48:53] Mat Germain: A lot of people do like him already and have pointed out his skills though, to be fair. , so I don't think he's going to be exactly an unknown to anyone, 

[00:49:01] Mat Germain: , right above him. We have 19 Dylan Lesko and, and I, I was so excited when they got him from the Padres because I know he's been languishing there a little bit and not showing his full potential.

[00:49:14] Mat Germain: So like I said before with, , Paul Gervase and, and, uh, what he's been able to do with the Rays once he, , made the jump from the Mets. I was hoping for the same thing from Dylan Lesko. Having said that, it hasn't shown up yet. There's still some zoning in to do. I know there's tinkering going on and, , until you spend a whole off season and a whole training program and a whole spring training with an organization, you get a lot of leeway.

[00:49:40] Mat Germain: So Dylan Lesko is still in the top 20 because I know the talent is there. He's a guy that misses a lot of bats with his stuff. The stuff is great. You just. A lot of walks, Mark. A lot of walks and really not trusting or not being able to repeat the delivery, whatever it is. He's not able to be zoned in or maybe he just doesn't trust this stuff as much as he should So i'm hoping to Rays and and and they're great coaches can get him to be more aggressive in the zone If he's able to do that I I think that we're going to see an explosion of of talent from our results from from dylan in 2025 

[00:50:18] Mat Germain: Uh, Colton Ledbetter is the next guy on the list at 18 and you know You Sometimes the outfielders that don't have the shiny tools are the ones that get the playing time when they get to the show.

[00:50:29] Mat Germain: Uh, and Johnny DeLuca is a good example of that, right? You don't get that whole, you know, Oh wow, look at that. Or wow, look at this, but they just do everything well. And, and Colton Ledbetter is a lot like that, where, he has the speed to play any of the three positions. He has enough power that you want him in the lineup and without having to fear that he's not going to have any power and he gives you strong at bats every time that he's up there and he's learning that craft of basically being a little bit more consistent at the plate.

[00:50:59] Mat Germain: So all the way through the minors, he's always been one of those guys that you have to keep an eye on if you're the opposing pitcher and you're looking at the lineup. Um, He's always gonna provide a lot of consistency to it. So now he's made, he's done that all the way up to the a plus level. The question is, what happens at the AA level?

[00:51:17] Mat Germain: So far, the HIT tool is looking volatile a little bit, where, you know, could be leaning more towards the Garrett Whitley side, or it could be going a little bit higher going forward. So there's a lot to, to watch basically in 2025 to see how he responds to the jump to aa. Um, so I'm really curious to see what he does there.

[00:51:38] Mat Germain: , it's hard to say how it'll turn out, but I'm keeping a good eye on it because the tools are there across the board. Everything is average or better. , that you can see him being a really solid outfielder when he gets to the show. 

[00:51:52] Mat Germain: Um, Mason Montgomery. So that was an eye opener last year, Mark. Yeah. Oh, yeah.

[00:52:00] Mat Germain: Yeah. You watched him pitch for the Rays, right? 

[00:52:02] Mark Corbett: Yes, indeed. I was glad to see him come up with it too. I mean, he'd been what with us since about, uh, 2021 or 2022. I'm looking at your, what you posted. And been all the way from single A, double A, triple A, and then finally made it to the show last year. So that was interesting to watch him come up.

[00:52:24] Mat Germain: If you open up the stats and you look at the, , 2023 season, I think you'll see that a lot of people had given up on him as a high end prospect. , and a lot of the reason was because the, in 2023, he had a 609 ERA, uh, sorry, FIP once he got up to triple A. 

[00:52:43] Mat Germain: That to me is always a big red alert kind of thing when you're looking at it, because although the era was 2. 7, the fit being 609 tells you, well, there's a lot of reasons why, why it was kept low and it wasn't really his pitching, 

[00:53:00] Mat Germain: Was more of the fielders or the situation or, or, you know, where the ball was hit. So I think a lot of people were holding their breath to see how it was going to turn out. So when they saw what, what happened in, um, in 2024 to start the season, then all of a sudden people started saying, well, yeah, we were right.

[00:53:17] Mat Germain: Right. And so you get the 539 FIP and then the 6. 26 ERA. You're like, oh, they're not going to call him up. Little did they know that eventually the Rays, you know, turned the page on his starting and they made him a reliever. So as soon as that happened. It took off and and this is the argument I think I made with you earlier in the off season Uh where the rays have to do that a little bit more quickly with some other pitching talents Uh, because the the potential is there and I think a lot of them would have a lot more success If they made that change a lot sooner And and he was just amazing in terms of the the amount of swing and miss he was able to get once he turned to relief Only uh, so i'm really excited to see what he can do in the Rays pendis here They made some room for him by Getting calm, posh, uh, you know, and not bringing him back.

So, 

[00:54:07] Mat Germain: so we're going to see what he can do. And I think there's a lot of potential there to be a really, you know, a steady left handed reliever that puts a lot of low fires, all, uh, All season long. So it's great to see Mason have success and, and all that works, not go to waste.

[00:54:23] Mat Germain: Uh, after him, there's one guy that everybody is really, really, really stoked about the season he had.

[00:54:29] Mat Germain: , because when you draft a high school pitcher, you never really know which way it's going to go. You're hoping, and you look at the tools and you're crossing your fingers, but you're always saying, okay, well. Is he going to be able to rise up to , the pressure because they do feel pressured.

[00:54:44] Mat Germain: They're giving up a college Education or they're going pro right away So they're putting all the chips on the table on their talents to actually pursue their professional career as a pitcher so with Gary Gill Hill The consistency he showed for a guy as young as he is Regardless of what situation he was in The mound presence, the movement on the pitches that he had, how much better those pitches got everything across the board just got better and better all season long and became more and more exciting.

[00:55:17] Mat Germain: So he's a guy that I think in the Rays system has a lot of helium, uh, because every. Evaluator, all the outlets are talking about Gary Gill Hill with a very, very excited tone, , whether or not he can follow it up with another season like that, we'll, we'll see how it goes. But here's what I did is I actually took out the last start because his last start of the season, he was running out of gas.

[00:55:39] Mat Germain: He gave up six runs. It wasn't really reflective of what he did the entire season. When you cut that out, you get 104 innings pitched. With, uh, as a 19 year old with 104 strikeouts. So a strikeout per inning and a two seven five ERA. So the walk rate was very manageable. Wasn't very high, consistent across the board.

[00:56:03] Mat Germain: And by the end of it, if you look at the, a few of his last starts. Uh before he gave up a few runs in the end I mean you're talking about a seven inning start where he gave up one run and struck out seven. Another one is six innings shut out with seven strikeouts , he's just he's one of those guys where you're you're leaning towards the starting role because of the excitement with how many bats he's able to miss and how Consistently he is I hope pitching but some people are saying he would be even better You If you were a reliever and they see him in a closing role down the road, 

I 

[00:56:37] Mat Germain: think when baseball America projects there, uh, Oh, what would the Rays be in 2028?

[00:56:42] Mat Germain: They had him in the closer role as an example. So I don't know. I'm hoping that that's not the case. I'm hoping he'll stick with the starters role. The frame I think is what gets a lot of people. And he's a little bit skinny and a little bit, you know, scrawny for his age. So they don't. See the, the stamina holding up over time.

[00:57:01] Mat Germain: But like I said, the number of innings pitched, if he's able to push that up to one 30, one 40 this coming year and show consistency, I think he'll put that to rest and he'll actually be known as a starting pitching prospect instead of just one or the other, 

[00:57:18] Mark Corbett: I'm glad to see a young Mat progressing so well.

[00:57:21] Mat Germain: Yeah, that's that's great. It's outstanding. Um, at number 15, we got Ty Johnson. Ty Johnson's got, you know, a 60 grade fastball and a 60 grade slider. Uh, so right away, you're like, okay, he's going to pitch an MLB at some point in time. The question is more, what kind of role is he going to have and what kind of success?

[00:57:42] Mat Germain: So. He struck out 120 guys in 84 innings over his last, uh, 13 starts. Uh, I mean, the writing's on the wall with that. He's ready for AA. Um, I think that he's one of the guys that the Rays are really excited about, you know, bringing a board and having, uh, having the ability to tinker with them and see whether or not they can actually develop him as a starter.

[00:58:06] Mat Germain: But right away if they ever, you know decide to go full tilt on the uh, the reliever side Uh, he's one of the guys that you could see having a lot of success as a reliever I think Ultimately, he's going to be more of a third You know third to fourth guy in the rotation Um, the question is how many innings is he able to put under his belt?

[00:58:27] Mat Germain: Does he stay healthy? And how does he handle a switch up to double A? So we'll see i'm really excited to see what he does next year Radar 

[00:58:35] Mat Germain: Santiago Suarez is right ahead of him at number 14, young guy a lot of excitement last year for him. Um, I think that the uh, The the disappointment was more that he didn't step up a level some point in the season but If you were to ask me who?

[00:58:59] Mat Germain: Was the most consistent Starter in a ball for the Rays From the beginning of the season to the end of the season, Santiago Suarez would be it. So the Rays allowed him to get a really strong foundation at that one level. So that next year when he goes up to Bowling Green, he's actually able to handle it a lot better than he would have otherwise.

[00:59:21] Mat Germain: He did have some starts where he was, , up and down for a little tiny stretch. I think that was more of a tinkering with the repertoire, which is what you can do at the lower levels when you're trying to Get a pitcher to have the The the best tools to miss more bats as they go up to the higher levels So I think that had a lot to do with it, but his walks per nine.

[00:59:42] Mat Germain: I mean mark, they're always consistently Right around the 1. 7 per nine, so that's a really solid Uh result for a guy that's only 19 years old to this point 

[00:59:54] Mark Corbett: That ain't bad, McGee. 

[00:59:56] Mat Germain: Not at all. So, so you're looking at it and you're going, okay, well he threw 111 innings, , at A ball level. So really he's, he's shown a lot already just by making that, um, that work with a, uh, 2. 99 XFIT. So that's the expected, uh, fielder independent, um, which is really solid. Like you're, you're expecting a little bit better than the 4. 11 era that he actually had as a result is basically the case so he'll be one of the key cogs in the Bowling Green rotation next year I think that he's going to be someone that you want to see a higher k rate from next year so something above 10 would really get people excited and get him on on a better footing basically going forward So yeah, Santiago Suarez is very, very intriguing.

[01:00:51] Mat Germain: Uh, he's the guy that everybody's keeping an eye on. 

[01:00:54] Mat Germain: Homer Bush Jr. Is next, uh, is another guy that the Rays got from the Padres. Another speedster. , you know, you have certain guys that have certain moxie to their game and certain flair, I guess is the best way to put it. And Homer Bush Jr.

[01:01:07] Mat Germain: Has that. And, and, and he's just one of the guys that just, uh, electrifies the game when he's on the field. K percentage is below 20%. He's got a, a strong approach at the plate. I think the rays are going to allow him to swing a little bit more freely, , so that he can get a little bit more power out of his bat.

[01:01:27] Mat Germain: , we'll see how that plays out in terms of the K percentage, whether or not it goes up with him or not. , it did a little bit last year through 121 plate appearances, but that's, that's a short, a small sample size. Uh, we don't want to jump to conclusions. , but with that approach, he was able to get to about 125, , weighted runs created.

[01:01:45] Mat Germain: So that's not a bad result for a guy that shows a lot of speed. He stole 57 bases last year. You're talking about agent Santana had 51, this guy had 57. He had another couple that were in the forties. He had, you know, a guy that we'll mention soon that had a lot as well. So. Speed is not lacking.

[01:02:06] Mat Germain: So I think you'll see Homer Bush jr. At some point in AAA next year, if he has a lot of success in double a, which is where he'll probably begin the season, take over the role for, uh, home, uh, for Chandler Simpson, 

[01:02:20] Mat Germain: number 12, Jackson. Baumeister, a guy that they got from the Orioles. And I think he was the main piece in my opinion in the package that they got back from the orioles Yeah, mac horvath is great and and you know, the Etzel is great in terms of an outfield talent but the focus to me was definitely on Baumeister because he's the guy that will actually be able to Push some of the Rays pitching talents As he chases down one of the rotation spots I think that he's one of the guys that can actually , miss, , a lot more bats than people give him credit for, for whatever reason.

[01:03:02] Mat Germain: Um, I think that he, there's a good chance that some outlets rank him in the top ten for the Rays prospects this year. Uh, I think that he's going to open up a lot of eyes as he gets to Durham. And as soon as the Rays get a hold of his repertoire, uh, I just think it's going to be a pleasure to watch. , I'm expecting big things from him.

[01:03:22] Mat Germain: I really, really believe that he'll be in the top ten by the end of the season. And that we might even see him, maybe in the top five to seven. in most cases, but he'll be ready to be, a backup plan in 2026 for the Rays. They have so much talent right now that it's hard to see him get a shot in 2025, but definitely keep a good eye on him because , he's a lot of fun to watch.

[01:03:46] Mark Corbett: Well, he's still a young Mat, too, at 22. Yeah, 

[01:03:49] Mat Germain: he is. Yeah. But, I mean, we've seen the Rays do that before. Like, Shane Boz was pretty young when he made his first start with the Rays. Shane McClanahan was about the same age. Um, so, they're not shy about the age factor. Uh, it's more a Mater of whether or not the job opens up.

[01:04:07] Mat Germain: I'm hoping I'm right, but I think the Rays are in a healthy place right now with some of the guys returning and I'm hoping that they have a little bit more luck when it comes to guys actually not falling off the map through the season. I can't deal with the number of guys on IL that they've lived through that's just 

[01:04:27] Mat Germain: crazy.

[01:04:28] Mark Corbett: It's nuts. It's nuts. I mean, we all know about the whole pitching thing last year. That's why when you've been talking about pitching on the show previous weeks and looking at who's coming back this year, I can finally smile. But the same time, Mat, I know what's it look like by the end of the year.

[01:04:42] Mark Corbett: Everybody's. Roster can, can be looking fantastic or it can look pretty sad. So, um, I'm looking forward to seeing the strong team we're starting out with for the Rays, but, but looking at what we have, as far as opportunities here, just is amazing to me, , what we, we can see coming up and, uh, if any unfortunate, , things turn for the, Rays.

[01:05:05] Mat Germain: Right. So just like, um, Jackson Baumeister was the, the key piece in my opinion, when the Rays, , made the trade with the Orioles, I think the key piece when they made the trade with, um, with the Mariners was split, which is kind of odd to say, but, but, you know, You know, there was two pieces that were equally important in the trade.

[01:05:26] Mat Germain: I think they were the main reason the Rays made the trade. , and one of those pieces was Aidan Smith and I had him in my top 10 for the majority of the time I was building this list. He just slid a little bit outside at number of 11. But he's a very, very, very intriguing outfield talent. We spoke about, I think the last time, , you and I were talking and I was talking about, the Rays need those guys that are going to stand out and actually become, top 10, top 15, uh, you know, in the league at their position position, or even be the best at their position.

[01:06:03] Mat Germain: So when I look at, uh, Aidan Smith, I see a lot of, of, you know, Potential to be somebody like a Kyle Tucker. That's a little bit more of a late bloomer. It's a little bit more of a You know power not really showing up until he actually Fully develops, but Mat that guy can get on base. His at bats are just outstanding I think that the The, the tools that he has, the package across the board, you could say are very, very, very high to the point where you're just tinkering with whether or not they're 55 or 60.

[01:06:39] Mat Germain: And, and that says a lot because when you have that kind of tool package, if you get in the right organization at the right time and you get the playing time that you need, , I think that there's a lot to. A lot of promise there that the Rays will actually benefit from down the road. , so I think he'll end up in the top 100 at some point, whether or not it's this year or next.

[01:07:00] Mat Germain: I just saw enough last year where it got me really excited about his tool package. Uh, and I, I think that, , the Rays haven't had this many, high level outfield talents. All at once. And the next year on the list in the top 10, we're entering the top 10. 

[01:07:16] Mat Germain: Uh, Theo Gillen, uh, if you hadn't been hurt, he's had some knee issues.

[01:07:24] Mat Germain: If he hadn't been hurt as much as he had been would have been, you know, maybe top six or seven Drafted in this draft, uh, the rays were able to get him a lot, you know further out because of the the injury risk But he's a guy that the hit tool just shines. He's one of the best bat the ball skills guys of the draft So the rays are banking on A long development, but one that's very, very fruitful.

[01:07:52] Mat Germain: And he's going to anchor the, the outfield probably in a ball next year. , and I'm really, really interested to see what he can do there. There's a lot of, you know, we talk, I know I say it a lot too, when you talk about the makeup of a player, right? It's just about what you've heard other people say.

[01:08:10] Mat Germain: It's not because I've had the conversations with them, but there, there isn't one executive when they were doing the draft that after the Rays made their pick that didn't go out of their way to mention this about Theo. And, and, and really praise that part of him. So I think in that, in that case, it's one of those things to look for as he comes up.

[01:08:30] Mat Germain: Is, is, does that continue? Do you keep hearing that over and over and over again? So, something to watch for with Theo. He'll be able to play all three outfield spots. I think if he does have knee issues, the over time, it may be best for him to shift over to right field or left field. Uh, but we'll see how it goes.

[01:08:47] Mat Germain: And, uh, uh, just a great talent overall and somebody to keep an eye on. 

[01:08:51] Mat Germain: Um, Ian Seymour's left handed pitcher. I don't know why he didn't get more love last year. Uh, I look at this guy and he's just so much fun to watch. Uh, there's guys that Carlos Perez used to watch at the Expos that are just so animated on the mound.

[01:09:06] Mat Germain: And you're just like, man, I just want to keep watching the game because it's just so intense. And intense is how I would describe Ian Seymour. Uh, he has a, he has a job to do, he's on the mound to do it, and he's going to do it, and he's going to prowl around the mound, uh, as he does it. Uh, so the last 10 starts that he made with the, um, with the Bulls were, were great, 54 innings pitched, uh, 63 strikeouts, he was able to get, you know, The strongest starts of his season were at the end of the season.

[01:09:38] Mat Germain: And I think that's really telling because the year before, , Ian had gone through some injuries and, and so he was really building strength through the 24 season and was at his peak when the season ended. So I think you're going to see him really take off when the season starts this year. And I wouldn't be surprised to see him being one of the first call ups that , they use in season.

[01:09:59] Mat Germain: If once they need one. , So really excited about what he has, really great deception. He gets a lot of guys to miss hit balls, , and get awkward hits and awkward swings. So I think he's a really great arm for them to have as a backup. And I think that's part of why they were able to trade Jeffrey Springs away.

[01:10:18] Mat Germain: Yeah, 

[01:10:19] Mark Corbett: right. Cause I know I was, I saw Jeffrey Springs name being trade is like what, but when you see something like what Ian Seymour has done here, it's like, It gives a little bit more hope because I always, I always trust Neander. Okay. But, uh, yeah, that, and when Jeffrey Springs was gone, but you'd like with afterward, you've told me everything here about Ian Seymour, I certainly feel better about what we got in the trade.

[01:10:43] Mat Germain: Absolutely. Yeah. Feel very secure about it. And, uh, you know, the rays aren't afraid to use pen days if needed as well. So there you 

[01:10:51] Mark Corbett: go. 

[01:10:52] Mat Germain: Yeah. Brailer Guerrero is next on the list of number eight. Now, when the season started, I started just, you know, really zoning in on him because of what he was doing.

[01:11:04] Mat Germain: Unfortunately, he got hurt. So it, it really threw a little bit of water on the fire. Uh, but he was on his way to having a great season to the point where you're like, Whoa, okay, now we've got a, another. Phenom style, player on the team, , that are in a system that we need to monitor really closely.

[01:11:24] Mat Germain: So his weighted on base through, uh, 126 plate appearances last year was 450. When you're talking, a guy that's 18 years old, , even though it's rookie ball, it's still impressive because it was his first time playing on US soil out of the DSL and he had 155, uh, weighted run to create it.

[01:11:41] Mat Germain: So because of the guys that I mentioned before in terms of Theo Gillen and, and, you know, the more, seasoned players that they got out of the draft, it's hard to say whether or not he'll start in A ball or again in, in, uh, in the FSL next year. 

[01:11:58] Mat Germain: I think that, you know, even if he starts in the FSL, if he has this kind of success right away, again, I think they'll make the jump to A ball very quickly.

[01:12:06] Mat Germain: His defensive abilities in right field are outstanding. His arm is great. So I think that they'll probably want to test that as well, uh, all the way through the, the system is to sit him in right field and see if he can grow in to be an anchor in right field all the way through. So yeah, great talent, solid speed for now, probably will slow down a little bit as he gets older.

[01:12:29] Mat Germain: , but great, great, great, great, , contact. His hit tool is one of the better ones in the system, , especially in the lower parts. 

[01:12:37] Mat Germain: , Brody Hopkins is the other half of what I was talking about before, um, with the Rays. And, and I think that he's one of the guys that you want to. Get really excited about, the pitching, , I, I always liked Dylan Lesko just because I've owned him in so many fantasy leagues, but Brody Hopkins is a guy that I've grown to, to monitor a little bit more closely, , because he has, , just that, that innate ability of, of pretty much what all the Mariners prospects have really is that innate ability to miss bats and then to make guys look stupid when they do miss.

[01:13:14] Mat Germain: So, you know, he's a lot of fun to watch because of that. He lowered his WHIP when he jumped, made the jump from the Mariners over to the Rays. And that's why I'm giving him a little bit more credit, a little bit like Paul Gravasi, uh, where I think that they had a way to improve some of his, uh, stuff and some of it was working higher in the zone.

[01:13:31] Mat Germain: So it'll be interesting to see if that continues next year. Uh, it brought down the ground ball rate significantly, but it was also more effective. So we'll see how how it plays out. It was a very, very tiny sample. , now he's going to get to go in an offseason, a complete offseason with the Rays and see how much more refining he can do to his His set of tools and Mark, his floor is extremely high.

[01:13:58] Mat Germain: There's not many guys that you would give a 70 grade fastball to, uh, that are starting. Right. Um, so he's one of them. And I think that most people would agree that his slider has 60 grade potential. Um, so the question really for him is whether or not the rays are able to get enough out of the cutter and the change up to make the rest of his, Repertoire stick, uh, for him to remain a starter.

[01:14:24] Mat Germain: I think that they get every chance to do that. Hard to say whether or not he starts in a plus or double a this year. Like I said, there's a lot of competition in the Rays system, but the floor for him is extremely high and, and the ceiling is equally extremely high. 

Um, 

[01:14:41] Mat Germain: I think that there's a good chance that he ends up being, , a top three in our rotation when he gets to the show,

[01:14:48] Mat Germain: um, Brayden Taylor, now we're getting into the top six marks.

[01:14:51] Mat Germain: And all of these guys that I'm going to mention from here up, uh, are guys that could impact the 2025 season. Can you remember a time as a Rays fan that, that, that ever happened where the top six prospects were feasibly able to arrive in a single season? 

[01:15:16] Mark Corbett: I have not been a Rays fan as long as you might think.

[01:15:19] Mark Corbett: I mean, that's the moment we'll say, it'd probably be during the Madden era, wouldn't it? 

[01:15:25] Mat Germain: Yeah, well, I don't think it's ever happened to be quite honest. Okay. And most teams, most teams probably wouldn't do that in one season. 

[01:15:33] Mark Corbett: Yeah, I couldn't imagine, , 

[01:15:34] Mat Germain: the Rays are weird like that. I think they will because of the commitment they made to that in the off season, uh, or sorry, in, in mid season last year.

[01:15:45] Mat Germain: So when they decided to pull the plug on the season, basically and say, okay, we're treating a bunch of guys, we're going to bring in talent and we're just shifting gears a little bit, not a, a reset, not a five year, not even a one year they're basically saying, okay, we just want to load up with talent and have more people arrive at the same time to me that committed to that kind of thing.

[01:16:06] Mat Germain: And that's why we haven't seen them be aggressive this off season, bringing in more talent because they are loaded. I think they want to get them the playing time and it's just the, the breadth of guys that they have that are so high end in terms of their tools at various positions and key positions, the guys that they have on board right now, that it makes it a very interesting potential outcome.

[01:16:33] Mat Germain: So it starts with Brayden Taylor was a utility player, um, with the Rays, his Best position is probably second base. We know that they have Brandon Lowe. Uh, Brandon Lowe, as we all know, has a lot of back issues. He's played some first base. He's DH some, he really shines as a DH. Like honestly, probably one of the best DHs the Rays I've had in the last few years.

[01:16:57] Mat Germain: So. You can make a case that Brayden Taylor could steal that second base spot from, uh, Curtis Meade, from Richie Palacios, from, uh, Jose Caballero, or other guys, if he's able to perform extremely well in AAA when he gets there this year. , so that's the big thing with Brayden Taylor, is what is he going to do when he gets to AAA?

[01:17:18] Mat Germain: Uh, I don't know if he'll start the season there. Uh, there's enough, uh, Risk in terms of his strikeout rates that they probably want him to repeat double a for a portion of the season Um, so it'll it'll depend a lot on that Previous to his double a time. He was always a high on base percentage guy always a high Hit tool guy You know, not a 300 average guy, but a guy that hits enough and has enough speed to get in field hits.

[01:17:46] Mat Germain: And to get some of the, uh, extra base hits that you want from the guys in the, in the lineup. So always had solid power. And honestly, when you look at his power numbers, there's a lot of similarities to Brandon 

Lowe, 

[01:18:00] Mat Germain: which is really intriguing and it, I mean, Really in all of his numbers. All of his numbers you could replicate next to Brandon Lowe's and be like, wow, okay, well, this is weird.

[01:18:09] Mat Germain: This is, this is eerily similar to what I looked at before. So even though I think he'll be a utility guy for the most part, uh, you know, when you're looking at the makeup of the Rays, he's a guy that has the ability to move around. And there aren't many guys that I would call Ben Zobrist like, but he is one just because I think that it will be demanded from him.

[01:18:32] Mat Germain: And I think that his, his abilities body wise is able to do it at a high level. And I think that was the unique thing with Ben Zobrist. It's not really that, um, that he could play. He could stand there at every position. He actually played every position. Well, Braden can do the same thing and I don't think it'll impact his bat.

[01:18:53] Mat Germain: It remains to be seen, obviously, but I think he'll be able to hold up the bat as he's doing that. And that's what makes him a Ben Zobrist like player. 

[01:19:02] Mat Germain: Um, ahead of him is probably my favorite. Uh, pitching prospect in the Rays system, which is Yoniel Curet, uh, he's one of the guys that, um, you know, you try to never speak the words.

[01:19:16] Mat Germain: It reminds me of Pedro Martinez. 

[01:19:19] Mark Corbett: Well, okay. So you're going to say Zobrist and, and Pedro Martinez within the same minute. Come on, Mat. 

[01:19:27] Mat Germain: I would never do that on the, especially to the kid. Right. I don't want to put that kind of stuff on him. Um, but no, I think. The Rays put him on the 40 man early for very, very good reason.

[01:19:39] Mat Germain: The tools are very, very loud. , I think he'll, he'll actually. , Be better than even we expect him to be once he fully develops. Uh, and I think he has a one or two, , potential as a ceiling, if he puts it all together. Having said that a lot of people still see a lot of risk with the walk rates.

[01:19:59] Mat Germain: Uh, they've started to come down as he's getting up to the higher level. So that's why I'm very excited about him. It's that, you know, the, the batting average is staying low. in terms of people actually, you know, going up to the plate and having success against him. The walk rate is going down and the K rate is staying high or even improving as he's getting up to double A.

[01:20:24] Mat Germain: So he'll start probably in double A. Um, I would say, you know, maybe a half dozen starts. If they are anywhere near what he did when he first got there last year, uh, I think you're going to see him move up to AAA very quickly. And I think that the Rays will be very excited about bringing him into the show at some point.

[01:20:45] Mat Germain: He's that kind of talent where nothing phases him on the mound. Uh, he gets a good amount of miss hits. Uh, the guys can't see the ball very well from them. They're always taking weird swings when he's, when he's on the mound. So I, I think. It's nice to know that the rays have that coming. It's sort of comforting, right?

[01:21:05] Mat Germain: Uh, it's a bit more of a polished talent than what a Brody Hopkins would be, or what a Dylan Lesko would be, or some of the other guys that I mentioned, uh, even though he's still very, very, very young. He's only 22. 

[01:21:17] Mat Germain: Right ahead of him is Tre' Morgan. 

A 

[01:21:21] Mat Germain: lot of people, there's consensus that he's the best defensive first baseman in the minors.

[01:21:26] Mat Germain: I don't know if that's true or not. He went to the AFL last year and actually played some outfield as well. He's, shown a little bit of what he can do out there. I don't think they have any plans of putting him out in left field, , unless something were to happen where Xavier Isaac demanded, uh, or had to play first base cause he had an injury or something like that, but Tre' Morgan is stellar as a first baseman, uh, should be their first basemen of the future.

[01:21:52] Mat Germain: Uh, his, uh, way to runs created has always been extremely high, well above average. He showed he could handle the AFL pitching with ease. Uh, every at bat he puts up he's pesky reminds me a lot of Carlos Santana, if that makes sense. Uh, where, you know, you'll have a high walk rate, a low K rate, , really high average and he'll get on base. But I don't know if the hit tool is going to outshine Carlos Santana, which is kind of. You know, intriguing in itself. Can he maintain that 300 average and above that he's done so far all the way through, you know, uh, A plus? Can he do that at the upper levels? First little bit in the double A, it was a little bit lower, but like I said before, there's an adjustment period.

[01:22:35] Mat Germain: So for Tre' Morgan probably starts in double A next year. And if he shines early on, he'll probably get pushed up to triple A and then he'll be ready to be called up probably in 2026. So that's Tre' Morgan. 

[01:22:49] Mat Germain: Um, at number three, big trio, uh, Xavier Isaac is the first guy that I think we all went, Oh, the rays are drafting differently now because they banked on the power and, and there aren't many guys that get 80 grade power in the minors.

[01:23:12] Mat Germain: They're very hesitant to throw that around. And he gets it because when you see him hit a home run. , , it's not just going a little bit over the fence, it's going beyond and well beyond and well beyond, and, and it's extremely exciting for the Rays to have that because I've been waiting for them to have, , a top outfield talent.

[01:23:36] Mat Germain: I think where you're like, okay, that guy, not defensively, I'm talking offensively that that you can say, okay, they're going to have this guy for six, seven years. And he's going to just mash, you know, that's, that's an extremely rare thing in a Rays system. They've been very successful at other things, but that hasn't been one of them.

[01:23:56] Mat Germain: So for him to be able to bring that to the Rays at any point in time in the near future is extremely exciting. He has to work on his k rates. They're a little bit high. , so I think that there's a lot of youth and a lot of power, uh, focused development that is, , that is included in that. So I don't think it's scaring to Rays at all.

[01:24:16] Mat Germain: I think it's actually, a good thing that you're also seeing the steadiness of the walk rates. So all the way through from a ball, all the way through to AA so far, it's been right there at 14 to 15%. What that's telling me is pitchers are afraid to pitch to them in a lot of cases, and there's a lot more room to grow when it comes to on base abilities and hit tool abilities.

[01:24:39] Mat Germain: Uh, so you look at the weighted rent runs, uh, sorry, we weighted on base average at the same time, and you're all the way up to three 96 and then it only dipped to three, three, four, when he got to double a as a 20 year old. So. The on base percentage itself was still about three 50. So you're like, okay, well, that's, that's manageable.

[01:25:00] Mat Germain: That's, that's a solid, first attempt at double a as a 20 year old for your 130 at bats. So I'm really excited for Xavier. I think he's going to have a bright future with the Rays. I think that the, the, it's been a long time since we've had a power pitcher. For the, uh, sorry, power hitter for them that, that will anchor the lineup in the same way that a David Ortiz would.

[01:25:23] Mat Germain: Um, so I, I have, uh, I have an inkling that you'll see him in trouble chip lane and Durham very quickly if, , if he comes out firing in, in 2025,

[01:25:36] Mat Germain: the next guy in my list is Chandler Simpson. And the reason why he's at two and Xavier is that three is the hit tool. So Xavier has a very intriguing power package, but as we've seen a lot of prospects through the majors, power tends to go, it tends to come, it tends to, depending on how the, the player develops the rest of the tools, there's a risk there.

[01:26:03] Mat Germain: So basically with Chandler Simpson, there is no risk. The hit tool is there. We know what you're going to get out of him when he goes to the plate, which is a very, very pesky, steady approach. The pitchers are going to hate pitching to him. He's going to get on base. He's going to drive him nuts He's going to get on the base and steal a lot of bases and turns a lot of those those singles and walks into triples And and he's just going to be an electric guy Uh, I I don't think the rays have had an electric guy of this sort since carl crawford.

[01:26:36] Mat Germain: I think that he's very very very exciting to know that he's coming basically because when yandy diaz is in the phase of his career that he is You At some point, you're going to have to replace him at the top of the lineup, and Chandler Simpson is that guy. He's going to be able to anchor the top of the lineup with great at bats and set the tone for the rest of the lineup.

[01:27:00] Mat Germain: And that's just great. His average, when you're looking at it, is ridiculous. In A ball he, , he did dip down to 285, but ever since then it was 326, 293, 364, 351, 355, the last three that I mentioned there and a plus, and then double a, I mean, that's just. It's ridiculous, really. , the Rays are, are lucky to have him.

[01:27:26] Mat Germain: He scored 104 bases last year. And I don't think he gets enough love still. I, I don't understand why he's not in most people's top 100 prospects. Uh, because I look at everything that he does and I'm just, I'm amazed that they don't give the same amount of credit to the hit tool as they probably should.

[01:27:45] Mat Germain: And top of the heap, Mark, we're at the top. 

[01:27:49] Mark Corbett: And finally, I've been waiting to see this man's name rise. We've been talking about him all year and last year. So, and not surprised to see you had this man here. So go ahead, Mat. But number one, 

[01:28:02] Mat Germain: number one is Carson Williams. He's a 21 years old. He's their future captain.

[01:28:08] Mat Germain: , that's the way that I phrased it in the, in the write up. And he's just elite defender. Uh, they, they did a poll with all the executives in MLB and all their scouting and, and, you know, asked who is the, who are the top talents defensively in the minors, and he was at the top of the heap by more than 40%.

[01:28:27] Mat Germain: So that says a lot about what the rays are going to get when he arrives. The question is when is he going to arrive? So defensively, we know he's MLB ready. Uh, you're talking about a guy with both power and speed. So 20, 20 and, and, uh, 23. So 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Last year, he put up 20 home runs and 33 stolen bases.

[01:28:49] Mat Germain: Um, he also was able to bring his K rate rate down a little bit last year in double A. Uh, so he's under 30 percent now with while maintaining his power. So his power was still above 200 in terms of the ISO. , so in my opinion, there is no need for him to go to AAA. I think that he can get that seasoning in the majors.

[01:29:10] Mat Germain: The Rays aren't expecting to win the world series. I think that he has the makeup to handle it. I think that he has the, um, the kind of package that you want from your starting shortstop. There is no need for us to go through one, two, three, four months of Taylor walls at shortstop. I want to see Carson Williams starting shortstop for the Rays opening day.

[01:29:34] Mat Germain: And I want him to be , the, the new focus of the position. I, you can hit them ninth. Hit him ninth for the first two months and see how it goes. I just think that throwing him in AAA at this point would just be doing a, a disservice to the season overall, to the Rays, because I don't think they're going to get much more out of anybody else, , than they would get from him.

[01:29:56] Mat Germain: So I say go for it. Go for the rookie that could actually get you that extra pick. Uh, go for the development more than anything else, for a guy that has the makeup to handle it in Carson Williams. , the Rays fans deserve to have a replacement that's permanent for Wanda Franco. So that's the alternative is that the Rays may be skittish a little bit to put that much pressure on him right away.

[01:30:24] Mat Germain: Um, we also know about the years of control, so is there a potential that the Rays look at at Carson Williams and say, you know what, do you want to sign an extension? Do you want to? they've done it before with Brandon Lowe, for example, where they did that six year extension where he gets a bonus, he gets set increases and they buys out, the majority of his, , arbitration years.

[01:30:47] Mat Germain: They could look at something like that. It doesn't have to be as aggressive as they did with Wander Franco with 30 years. 

[01:30:53] Mark Corbett: No, 

[01:30:54] Mat Germain: but that would mitigate the whole control time issue, right? Where they would want to bring them in only in June or July or whatever they want to set that date at. Um, so I'm hoping we see Carson Williams extremely early.

[01:31:08] Mat Germain: And in my opinion, earlier, the better in 2025, and that's the list. 

[01:31:13] Mark Corbett: That's the list and quite impressive. Thank you, Mat, for. Again, diving deep into the entire system of the Tampa Bay Rays and preparing this list of the top 50 prospects for Tampa Bay Rays. And like I said, some of these names I knew I was going to see here.

[01:31:30] Mark Corbett: Certainly Xavier, Isaac, Trey Morgan, your top 10, most of those names I already knew, but, uh, you, you showed some hope, you know, even early on about some of these younger pitchers, uh, in the fifties, I mean, she'd be in the forties. So I'm looking forward to continually to track some of these people. And I want to thank you again for sharing that with all of us, brother.

[01:31:50] Mat Germain: It's always a pleasure, Mark. And I thank you for giving me the air time to do it. That's a lot 

[01:31:57] Mark Corbett: of fun too. So thanks again,

Just a reminder you can find Mat at  M-A-T-G-E-R-M-A-I-N dot bsky social. That’s @matgermain.bsky.social  or Mark at @baseballbizondeck.bsky.social