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BaseballBiz On Deck – Winter Meetings, Juan Soto, Rule 5
[00:00:00] Mark Corbett: Welcome to BaseballBiz On Deck. I am Mark Corbett, your host and your other host, Mr. Matt Germain. How you doing, buddy?
[00:00:14] Mat Germain: Winter meetings have me chilled, but busy, my eyes are drying up. I'm reading so much action in the winter meetings. It's great.
[00:00:23] Mark Corbett: Well, I've seen you on blue sky, brother. I, your fingers must be down to the bone nub.
[00:00:28] Mark Corbett: I mean, you're posting out a lot of different information there for us to, to stay in tune with, with all the changes with rule fives and trades and my gosh, it's been insane this winter meetings.
[00:00:40] Mat Germain: Yeah, it's been a lot of fun. I think most teams are involved in something or dreaming about other things, and things are flying around a lot more than in previous years, I think, because, you know, Scott Boras decided to allow his guys to sign early, and it's completely changed the feel and look of winter meetings.
[00:01:00] Mark Corbett: Yeah. I mean, I hate it when we're looking at the first week of spring training and there's still guys that were out there, you know, last year and before that too. So my Boras's boys and it just wasn't happening, you know, it's, we weren't seeing them being picking their team or the team picking them prior to that.
[00:01:19] Mat Germain: Yeah. And to be honest, it wasn't really fair to his, uh, uh, I wouldn't want to call them lesser, but the. Players that he was going to get signed for less money were getting a huge disadvantage because he was through that entire period He was still spending You know a lot of the the company's time On the the higher end players trying to get their deals worked out over the time And and and so he wasn't really focusing on a lot of the other players or it didn't feel like that And so a lot of them often were going on, you know unsigned all the way through the beginning of February and into spring training.
[00:01:55] Mat Germain: Uh, when you're trying to sign a contract at that point, well you're already behind the eight ball and I think Blake Snell spoke of that this year when he started late. It really, really, really, really threw a wrench in his season, so. It's good that he was able to work out of it, but not everybody can,
[00:02:12] Mat Germain: And it's, you know, it's their payday that they're missing out on, not Scott's.
[00:02:17] Mark Corbett: Yeah, well, we're very fortunate to see some of that happen early, and seeing some really good action. I was going to wonder, though, what in the hell is going to happen once Juan Soto Signs because we're looking at these teams. There's like Red Sox, Blue Jays, the Yankees, and the Mets. Uh, there may have been one or two more.
[00:02:38] Mark Corbett: I don't know of who are really looking solidly at. Juan Soto, but those people , had to have something in their pocket book to work with. And if they didn't get Soto, what were they going to do after that? But it getting to Soto was, was the challenge. I don't know if anybody ever thought that we would see a 765 million contract with the player, but here it is.
[00:03:04] Mat Germain: I think we used to joke about it. It never like seemed to be something that would become real. Um, but I think the economics of the game and, and I'll point to this, nobody's really talking about it very much. I think the teams and MLB in general is making a bundle from gambling. And that's really opened up the coffers to push it up to another level despite all the TV contract.
[00:03:29] Mat Germain: Issues that they're having across the league. So I think that's what's really causing this big uptick Uh, I think you know had this happen without gambling being involved in mlb at all I think you'd be looking more at a 400 million to 450 for juan soto so he can thank the gamblers For for the majority of the uptick in his contract
[00:03:52] Mark Corbett: Yeah, I could see that because I mean, my gosh, where did all this money come from?
[00:03:57] Mark Corbett: And it's a good point to say, yes, it did come from somewhere. And you know how I feel about gambling in sports anyway, or how I feel about gambling overall. I feel more than that, but we'll keep it abbreviated. So the whole thing that was seeing Juan Soto get that contract and you're saying, okay, the folks, the Blue Jays, they were looking at spending that much.
[00:04:19] Mark Corbett: I mean, rumors was that, that they were looking at a similar price range for Soto as, as well as the Yankees and the Yankees. One report says that the reason. That Soto didn't stay with the Yankees. Cause I'm thinking here we are. He's he's with the Mets. He's with the New York Mets now. And we're saying, why didn't he just stay there with the Yankees?
[00:04:39] Mark Corbett: Well, one report said that both teams were offering about the same amount of money, except that the Mets were going to give a suite at the ballpark for Soto's family and the Yankees weren't.
[00:04:54] Mat Germain: Yeah, that might be true to a degree, but I think one Soto wanted to be the guy. Right. Yeah, I think, I think, you know, he went to San Diego for a bit and he was, you know, second fiddle to Francisco Lindor and Manny Machado there, who had been there much longer and it was more of their team than his team, or at least it seemed the case.
[00:05:15] Mat Germain: And the fact that he'd only lasted a year there tells the same story. Going over to New York. It felt kind of the same way. It's Garrett Cole and Aaron judges team. It's not really Juan Soto's team, even if he had signed a big deal, right? Because they also have big deals and they have a longer track record, more jerseys in the, in the crowd.
[00:05:35] Mat Germain: And he would have had to do a lot. To get the same buy in that those other players got, and he knew that if he struggled, he was going to be run up the flagpole, just like the rest of the people that have struggled in the Yankees uniform. I think it just honestly, it came down to respect and what I've heard from listening to the shows and reading more about, you know, the signing and what they did, I think.
[00:06:03] Mat Germain: The personal approach that, , Steve Cohen took in handling it himself with the primary focus of Soto and his family, , being completely aware of all of the aspects of how things were going to work for the entirety of this deal, and that the fact that it was going to be You know a lot centered around him and making sure that the team Was going to have every single rock, turned upside down in order to find whatever they need in order to win So if you're told all those things and you're in a great market in new york for Any marketing that you want to do?
[00:06:43] Mat Germain: Why would you say no and to me? It's great to finally see You know If you were to pick the two best smiles You In, in, in, sorry, in MLB right now, of all the players that are playing baseball right now, the two best smiles that when you see them on the field, they just look like kids, like Ken Griffey Jr.
[00:07:04] Mat Germain: used to be, where they put the hat on backwards and they're just having fun, right? Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are it. Like those two guys together and their moms, their moms are going to get along fantastically. Like they're just going to live it up. They're going to be, you know, in Queens. They're going to be the Queens of Queens, put it that way.
[00:07:28] Mat Germain: And it's going to be a wonderful thing, you know, a shift in mental focus for New Yorkers, just because, , the empire can only last for so long before it needs a. a challenger. I guess that's the best way to put it. And to be honest, it'll make the Yankees better. By having this rivalry with the Mets for, , for everybody's attention span in New York, they're going to be driven to push their limits beyond what they otherwise would have.
[00:07:59] Mat Germain: I would say the Yankees for a long time, like, you know, I don't say a long time, for, for five to seven years, depending on how you want to debate it, we're, we're a little bit lazy. Like they were able to kind of cruise control their way into playoff positions and not really focus on winning that World Series instead.
[00:08:17] Mat Germain: Whereas now when they know what the Mets are building and what they have, , including Clay Holmes and Juan Soto, who were once with them, like they're just, they're forced into a corner to, , really attack the free agent and trade market as best they can. And they've already done that.
[00:08:35] Mark Corbett: And, and I see that I see the need for the competition. I see that this will, you know, build that strength of that subway series and it will strengthen MLB. Then you've got an American league team, a national league team in New York. You have a ferocity between those two teams and the sense of that rivalry definitely like said, the expands beyond their divisions.
[00:08:58] Mark Corbett: It does all the way to the league. Now. You know, I've talked with Lou Schiff all the time, Dan, and we, once or twice, you're not surprised I'm bringing him up here, uh, on the show. And he was a Mets fan before he was down there with the Marlins. He texted me saying, you know, we were talking about Soto. He says, Steve Cohen, I wish Steve Cohen owned every team because he believes that the Mets are supposed to be a charitable organization for the people of New York and all he wants to do is win.
[00:09:31] Mark Corbett: And doesn't care if he makes any money.
[00:09:33] Mark Corbett: I thought, wow. We all saw when Steve Cohen bought the Mets, we saw this guy, this billionaire, and we knew he was a fan first. And he was going to buy a tag on championship if he had to. And quite honestly, I didn't care if he did.
[00:09:52] Mark Corbett: Because I thought maybe it would get some other owners to get off the pot. And spend some money for some decent players and cultivate some decent players. So I am so excited about Soto being with the Mets. And I am looking forward to seeing how that affects everything else. Talking about that with teams, what happened with the blue Jays?
[00:10:13] Mark Corbett: I mean, if you're looking at spending that much money for Soto, what, what now are they going to do with supposedly that money they had in their pocket?
[00:10:22] Mat Germain: The blue Jays never should have even considered, uh, to bid on Juan Soto whatsoever, because, um, their focus should have been like. would have had to start three, four years ago in building a great system, in building depth, in signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
[00:10:42] Mat Germain: to a extension. If they had done all those things, then they can approach Juan Soto and, and show him what they've built. They have an empty nest. They, I wouldn't call their system the worst in MLB. It's about midway, right? Maybe you could say somewhere in the 20 to 22 range overall, uh, it's devoid of offensive power that I could not name you 5 guys in their system that will have an impact at the MLB level in terms of on the field, uh, bats.
[00:11:13] Mat Germain: So. Like when you start there and you're Juan Soto, you're like, well, you're not going to be able to sustain anything. And historically they've never gone above and beyond the luxury tax. So I know you're not going to chase that, those numbers consistently. So why would I join your team? You're not hungry enough to win.
[00:11:34] Mat Germain: You're a corporation. You're not a Steve Cohen. And that's how it comes across with the Blue Jays, and they're having a really, really hard time understanding who they are. I think they have a weak front office, who's not able to sell the vision that they should have. So for instance, this offseason, What they should have done is gotten ahead of the curb, signed Willie Adamas, uh, they wouldn't have had to trade all these players for Andrés Giménez instead, uh, they should have, uh, signed Max Fried and somebody else.
[00:12:07] Mat Germain: And they would have cost them less than chasing Juan Soto. They would have had a better team then, so that when they go to talk to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. about sticking around, he'd be more open to it. But right now, when they go to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., they're like, okay, well. You know, we both may or may not stick around.
[00:12:26] Mat Germain: Um, our pitchers are mostly over 32. Um, we don't know who we have behind them. Most of the guys we have in the minors that are upper echelon arms are injured or Tommy John survivors or, you know, like, So, at what point does Vladdy just walk away from the table before he even finishes hearing the speech?
[00:12:48] Mat Germain: Like, they're not well built. Now, when they went and got Andrés Giménez, he's a great player. He's a great second baseman. And he has some potential in his bat to improve on what he's done so far. But they're going to be paying him 23 million a year. Like, so, Quetel Marte led Major League Baseball out of all second basemen, right?
[00:13:11] Mat Germain: And we knew he was great when he signed an extension with the D backs. It wasn't like it was a surprise. He was already one of the top five, so they signed him. They're paying him 16 million a year. You're telling me you're gonna pay, uh, Andreas Jimenez, who was at the eighth or ninth best, uh, second baseman in terms of, uh, F War.
[00:13:33] Mat Germain: You're gonna pay him, you know, $7 million more than you're gonna pay Catal Marte. Like why, where that money should be going elsewhere. Not to second base. second basement is where you put a failed shortstop, right? Yeah. Yeah. And so a lot of people, people are saying, okay, well maybe Andrés Giménez can take over from Bo Bichette if he leaves.
[00:13:53] Mat Germain: That I understand and 23 million is less than what Bo Bichette would cost But Andrés Giménez is not gonna hit like Bo Bichette You know, you know, so what are you doing then? I don't understand the Blue Jays at all I don't and and the way that I see it is is You basically have gone the infield version of Dalton Varsho,
[00:14:18] Mat Germain: just an excellent defender? Great! Yeah, but how are you going to score runs?
[00:14:23] Mark Corbett: Well, I mean, it's critical as you brought up too. If we're looking at Vladdy Jr. He's there till the World Series and after that he can say goodbye. And if they're not looking at building a strong team, if they're not, if there doesn't seem to be the commitment there, there was absolutely no reason Soto would have came.
[00:14:43] Mark Corbett: And I'm sure That if things don't change through this year, I think Vladdie will be gone, which is kind of sad because I mean, it's, it's his country, right? I mean, this, he's a Canadian. He just got inducted into the Canadian, hall of baseball player, hall of fame with the, what was it? The Tip O'Neill award.
[00:15:03] Mark Corbett: And you know, they love him. The Blue Jays fans love him, and I'd hate to think to see that he would not be part of that team, but I can see at the end of the 2025 season him moving on.
[00:15:19] Mat Germain: I'm hoping that two things happen. That, uh, the White Sox are sold to the Montreal ownership group, and that the first signing they'd make is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
[00:15:35] Mark Corbett: Yeah,
[00:15:37] Mat Germain: they go into Montreal and his hometown and I was in the seats in the Olympic Stadium when he hit the walk off winning home run in a pre season game against the Kurds and the ball landed like 10 feet away from me and I was there with my dad and we were just talking about how great it would be to have baseball back in Montreal.
[00:15:59] Mat Germain: And, and I, I sincerely think that if Montreal was announced as a franchise, he would have an inkling to kind of say, yeah, you know what, if they're willing to pay me the contract and the value, I, I would consider going there. Um, but I. It is sad. You're right. Like he should be a blue jay for life. They should make that commitment.
[00:16:19] Mat Germain: They don't trust his body. They don't trust his mindset. They think that for some reason, uh, they can't build a team around him. Now. I don't know what the positional aspect. Don't talk to me about body size. Okay, David Ortiz was the face of the Red Sox for a long time. Kirby Puckett was the face of the Twins for a long time.
[00:16:42] Mat Germain: Tony Gwynn was the face of the Padres for a long time. You do not need to have perfect form and shape to be an offensive player. Force in Major League Baseball. Um, I, I, I don't want to hear it. And if that's the reason they're not extending them, then so be it. He'll go elsewhere. I, I would predict the Angels, where his dad went, is also another, , plausible alternative.
[00:17:05] Mat Germain: Uh, if they let go of Anthony Rendon and, and eventually get rid of his salary off the books, then they can just shift that money right over to Vladdy Jr.
[00:17:14] Mark Corbett: Wow. All right, so now we know what happened with the Blue Jays, and we know that what happened with, with the Yankees as far as getting Soto, and I don't know, I was wondering with the Rays with, with no tax, you know, bring him down here, I know that's ridiculous to even talk about with the Rays, where, where else would you thought, um, he might have gone?
[00:17:40] Mark Corbett: The Red Sox. The Red Sox.
[00:17:43] Mat Germain: To me. Right now, today, as we're talking, are the best team in the AL East. By far, and I'll tell you why, the acquisition of Garrett Crochet completely revamps their entire rotation. I think a lot of people are forgetting that Lucas Giolito is coming back from his injury, and he'll be ready to go with a full season.
[00:18:07] Mat Germain: That's a significant addition, and the fact that they're both left handed really, , Sets their, their rotation up nicely. , I think that they have, , an exciting outfield that is young, athletic. They go get the ball. They're very, , defensive minded and, and they're able to run the bases really well. And that's something that I think The Red Sox have needed for a long time.
[00:18:32] Mat Germain: They needed to kind of get their guys moving and to be more of a threat on the bases when they have guys at the plate. I think Rafael Devers realizes who he is and it'll probably end up at first base
[00:18:43] Mat Germain: and
[00:18:44] Mat Germain: that they'll get more Uh, arm help, like whether it's Luis Castillo or somebody else for Tristan Casas, assuming that they do offload them.
[00:18:54] Mat Germain: They're still talking about that right now, and rumors are coming out constantly about Tristan Casas. But, All that to say that that I really like Jarren Duran I I think he's one of the better lead off hitters in the al east right now Um, you're looking at trevor story coming back. Yoshida's great. Connor wong was a great force behind the plate Oh, yeah.
[00:19:17] Mark Corbett: Oh, yeah
[00:19:18] Mat Germain: I think that he really took a step forward and he's the one that allowed them to deal kyle teal in the garrett crochet deal. I think Tanner Houck and Brian Bellow are great. Cutter Crawford is great. Uh, they also have, , Liam Hendricks, , and Aroldis Chapman now in the pen. So you've got your shutdown, for the 8th and 9th.
[00:19:38] Mat Germain: Uh, I just, I think they've, they've closed a lot of holes that they used to have. But the main reason is the depth. They've built the depth. They have Von Grissom, who can go to AAA. He still has an option. They have Emmanuel Valdez. They have, uh, Marcelo Maier, who's one of their best prospects in years and an infielder that should be able to step right in to Major League Baseball when they need him.
[00:20:04] Mat Germain: Assuming Trevor Story gets hurt, let's say, then, uh, which isn't far fetched. Uh, Maier can, can step right in. They have Roman Anthony, who can go right into the outfield. He's MLB ready. There's no issues, right? They have covered every single position with a top end replacement. That's why I think that they are the force to be reckoned with in 2025 in the AL East.
[00:20:29] Mat Germain: I honestly don't even know if it'll be close. Unless the Yankees plug up their holes offensively, I think that the Red Sox will be first, and the Yankees, Rays, and Orioles will be fighting for second through fourth.
[00:20:46] Mark Corbett: Now the Yankees did make a commitment, I guess, post Soto, and that was bringing in a new pitcher.
[00:20:53] Mark Corbett: And we're talking about gentlemen's will be 31 years of age when 2025 season comes , long. And we're talking about Mr. Max Fried and he's going to be at sea with a contract, 218 million for eight years. And you say, wow. 31 years and old and you're giving an eight year contract you know, but you and I talk about this past a lot of times anyway that You don't really necessarily expect at the end of that contract that player is going to be able to do Which you hope they would sometimes they're actually paying that fee Knowing that they need that player right now and they're looking for three or four really good years out of him But when you're looking at max Fried, I mean we've had to face him off when he was with atlanta back in 2020 and He had that short year Let's see, he, um, he won seven games, lost zero man was win / loss record a thousand, but wow.
[00:21:49] Mark Corbett: Uh, since then, let's see, 2021, he's 14, seven, 2022, same 2023. I guess he was injured. He was eight and one and last year he kind of broke even with 11 and 10. So, um, with that 11 and 10, I was a little concerned about what they may think. Hope to get out of him, uh, for that 218 million.
[00:22:13] Mat Germain: I think that more than likely you'll find Gerrit Cole and Max Fried on IL for a significant period of time at the same time.
[00:22:23] Mat Germain: When that happens, I'm not sure, but I know both of their stuff is diminishing. Um, when you're looking at the peripherals of, of Max Fried's last three seasons, uh, for instance, his whip's gone from 1. 01 all the way up to 1. 16. 1. 16 is still outstanding. Do not get me wrong. But you tie that in with the FIP, which is a fielder independent, and it also has gone up from 2.
[00:22:50] Mat Germain: 7 all the way up to 3. 33. Still great. Do not get me wrong. But it is not as elite as it once was. So the question is then, are they paying for past performances or the future performances? So The thing is, the Yankees will be satisfied with what he did in 2024, regardless, right? 174 innings, , gave them an ERA right around 3.
[00:23:19] Mat Germain: 2 to 3. 3. , that gives them a chance to win every single game because they expect to have a roster that can actually score runs. Having said that, who's protecting Aaron Judge right now in the lineup? You know? It's Austin Wells. Are they really going to go into? No, they're going to make some moves.
[00:23:38] Mat Germain: There's something else that's going to happen. So the Yankees are going to change the way that they look. And that's why I say, okay, they've added max Fried, but I don't think the rotation is completely set yet. I think you're going to see another change or two. They might trade Lewis keel, for example. Uh, in a trade for Kyle Tucker, uh, they're going to go and get somebody.
[00:24:01] Mat Germain: That's why they signed Max Fried. It was more to free up one of their other pitchers for, for trades. I still don't believe they're going to stick around with Marcus Stroman unless they're really confident that he'll be able to bounce back after a really struggling year that he had. I, like I said about the Red Sox, the Yankees have some guys that you can dream on that can help their players.
[00:24:26] Mat Germain: They're rotational will Warren Clayton beater. They have a whole bunch of guys that are kind of, you know, triple A quad, A guys that are ready for, to test MLB. But you know, as well as I do pitching and Yankee Stadium is not always evident. And, and a lot of those guys end up, you know, in the pen for good reason because they, they struggle to be as efficient as they, they were down in the minors and a lot of times they end up dealt for.
[00:24:55] Mat Germain: You know more established players, so I don't know where they're gonna go. I like the Max Fried signing I think it was essential. I think they know Uh, either Rodon or, uh, Cole are going to end up on IL, and at least then they, they have a better chance of having two of the three, uh, leading their staff. Um, but, I don't know.
[00:25:17] Mat Germain: It still feels like way too much money, and that they'll be paying for, I don't want to say nothing, but they'll be paying for, to have them on IL for a significant portion of that.
[00:25:27] Mark Corbett: Yeah, no, I'm with you right there. That's why I'm kind of curious and then I mean you start looking at some of these aging players But some of them some of them have recreated themselves and right now I'm talking about Nate Eovaldi that guy He already got things had Tommy John twice, but his ability to To be able to put the ball where he wants it these days, you know far exceeds the need for speed in and of itself No, i'm not saying, you know, he doesn't do it and the man's been a workhorse And see i'm trying to see where he wound up.
[00:25:57] Mark Corbett: He signed. Where did he sign? But um
[00:26:01] Mat Germain: That's right.
[00:26:03] Mark Corbett: That's right. So I was so glad to see that because, you know, they, they love him there. And I don't know, Bruce Bochy loves glad to see that still in place, but he has always been an amazing pitcher for me to watch because I feel like he has more control of that ball than most pitchers do.
[00:26:23] Mark Corbett: I think he can hit that, place it on the corners where he wants it.
[00:26:28] Mat Germain: Yeah. The Rangers are going to pay. More, uh, to have pitchers on IL than the Rays paved our entire 40 man roster. They just love to get those IL arms. They do, you know, the DeGrom was broken. They knew they took him in. It was just, you know, the Max Scherzer.
[00:26:49] Mat Germain: There's a bunch of other examples we can go through. Um, but I, I think. They're, they're using the strength in numbers approach they have a lot of young arms that can learn from these guys, even when they're on the bench and they're trying to build a winner. I like the move they made for Jake Berger as well.
[00:27:06] Mat Germain: I think that's the guy that the Blue Jays should have gone after instead of him and his, because he actually, you know, plays hard every day and he impacts the lineup every day and that would have made more sense to me. But the Rangers are a very smart organization, they have a very deep roster, some of the most talented young outfield talent you could ever imagine.
[00:27:26] Mat Germain: Um, so it'll be exciting to see what they can do now that they have Nate Elvalde joining that group.
[00:27:33] Mark Corbett: So, let's see. Do you wanna look at any more like Garrett Crochet? Do you wanna look at, uh, uh, rule five? Um,
[00:27:41] Mat Germain: uh, I think the, you know, if you want to take a, a peek over the fence at the, um, the, the, the guys that, uh, the Orioles brought in, um, and finish off the a l least.
[00:27:53] Mark Corbett: Yeah, let's do that. Uh,
[00:27:54] Mat Germain: they brought in, uh, Gary Sanchez and Tyler O'Neill. And I think it's funny because they're bringing in the fences again on the left field and I'm just like, okay, so now you do that and then you go out and get two right handed bats, right? That's the way that you do it. And Tyler O'Neill's home run chart, if you look at it, it's similar to ESOC Paredes, right?
[00:28:19] Mat Germain: Where everything's in the left field and it's all, um, I don't know. Going to be fun to watch for the Orioles. I think it's a smart move. They knew they weren't going to bring back Santander, who's going to get now just as much money as he wants, I think. So many teams chasing him down now that Soto chose the Mets.
[00:28:40] Mat Germain: And the same thing for Teoscar Hernandez, who might, you know, Santander and Hernandez could go to the Jays and do really well there. Uh, Hernandez obviously is good friends with Vladdy, so, you know, I don't know where they're gonna end up, but I think the Orioles are set up to let their young guys play now, and they need that.
[00:28:59] Mat Germain: They need to establish their own internal, you know, machinery, um, and not just rely on free agency. Which could be hit and miss a lot of times, um, but I think when you're looking at, I was looking at the top left handed pitchers for each team, and you remember last year the Orioles went and got Trevor Rodgers, um, you could say Trevor Rodgers is their best left handed pitcher right now, um, you know, you look at the, the additions that were just made, well, The Yankees added Max Fried, the Red Sox added Garrett Crochet, both left handers, and the Rays are getting Shane McClanahan back.
[00:29:36] Mat Germain: So, these four teams, or sorry, the three teams that I just named, and then, you know, are way above the level that the Orioles and Blue Jays have. The Blue Jays don't even have a left handed starter. So It's kind of interesting when you start looking at how these teams are shaping out and how different it'll feel in the ALDs because of it.
[00:29:59] Mark Corbett: It's going to be an exciting year and being a Tampa Bay Rays fan, it's going to be exciting for a lot of reasons. But I'm so happy to see Shane McClanahan coming back. I mean, it's like, how long, is it two full years he's been gone? Jeez, manitly.
[00:30:16] Mat Germain: It feels like it, but you know, it's almost like a blink of an eye.
[00:30:19] Mat Germain: I still remember him throwing chairs around after his, uh, his initial MLB start in the playoffs of all places, uh, which I'll never understand. But yeah, the, you know, the, the timeline for, uh, Tommy John is usually a year and a half for a starter. And then I think he'll be well, just a tiny bit beyond that when he, uh, he takes the mound next year.
[00:30:43] Mark Corbett: Well, I'm going to be happy to see the man come back. That's for sure. I know a lot, a lot of us are, there's no doubt about that. So, uh, rule five rule five draft today, boys and girls, and. I want to give a little explanation. What rural five drafts about part of that is this is once a year where basically teams can pick one another's pockets for players for a price, uh, both at a major league level and a minor league level and correct me on any of this, uh, anywhere in here, Matt, but basically, you know, there are players that basically are not secure.
[00:31:20] Mark Corbett: And if there's somebody you see on another team that you would like to have, this is your opportunity to get them. And if the, uh, there's two levels, remind me, right? There's one at the major league level. And if you pick a player that's available on another team from there, you have to pay what a hundred thousand dollars, I believe to that team for that player.
[00:31:43] Mat Germain: Yeah. There's, there's a monetary cost. I think it changes on occasion, so I don't want to. Yeah, you got to turn and talk about an actual amount, but yeah, there's a financial cost to it that the team needs to cover and then part of it, they will have to pay if they actually send them back as well. So,
[00:32:03] Mark Corbett: yeah, I think from what I remember once upon a time is like, you had to pay 50 K.
[00:32:08] Mark Corbett: To send them back or maybe if it's how the team wanted them back, but that's one piece So that's at the major league level But then they have a round or two of that and every team doesn't have to participate and select someone Then they go into the minor league level and then the cost per player is significantly less.
[00:32:29] Mark Corbett: So this, uh, year, this year, while there wasn't necessarily a whole lot taking place at the major league level on the rule five, I think they said, uh, the minor league, as far as picking up new players, It's like 68, 69 players. Wow.
[00:32:47] Mat Germain: Yeah. And I just want to remind people why it exists, right? So if this didn't exist, some players that deserve to be in the majors and to get a shot at the show would not get that shot because they're, the, the.
[00:33:02] Mat Germain: The team they're on doesn't have the room for them, doesn't have the same faith in them. A lot of different reasons can go into it, but essentially this is meant to get players into the show and it gives some of the teams that may not have as much talent all the way through to grab a few guys that then take a few chances on some guys that that team for whatever reason isn't willing to take a chance on.
[00:33:24] Mat Germain: Um, and then, you know, there's Anthony Santander is a good example of a guy that was grabbed under Rule 5 and has turned his career around through that process. Um, and so now he's about to earn a huge payday
[00:33:38] Mark Corbett: and,
[00:33:39] Mat Germain: uh, and I think it's good. It's something that I feel should be expanded to kind of make it even more.
[00:33:46] Mat Germain: interesting and attract more attention. Um, but the other interesting aspect is if you don't like the player after you have them for a while, you can offer them back to the other team and you get 50, 000 back if they take them. If they don't want to take him back, then you just lose the player and you put them on waivers.
[00:34:05] Mat Germain: Um, but yeah, the Rays ended up losing some guys, uh, this year again, and they always do lose somebody. And one of them is, uh, Evan Reifert, who I think most people Will not know but he's one of the the most dominant relievers that the Rays have had in the minors for the last You know year or two depending on how you want to see it And for whatever reason the Rays never promoted him to triple a I don't know why It was clearly well above the double a level in terms of quality Uh, and they didn't want to move him up.
[00:34:38] Mat Germain: So he gets a chance now with the nationals But it's interesting because you look so overall the Rays lost him they lost the Samuel Mejia, another right hander, Emmanuel Mejia, another right hander, and Adam Leverett, another right hander. Adam Leverett they had obtained from the fillies, uh, in a trade. But anyways, he's, he's probably the one that I would point out as the most likely to maintain a good job in the show for a decent amount of time out of the guys that they lost.
[00:35:07] Mat Germain: But the, you know, the Rays being the Rays, they go out and they also get people in the real life. And so they added a guy who's, uh I'm going to say he's going to take over as the sexiest Rays rostered name, uh, from, from Richard Lovelady. , and his name is Nate Lavender. And they got him from the Mets.
[00:35:30] Mat Germain: To be honest, he's, he's a Colin Poche clone. He's somebody that has a very deceptive fastball that hitters just have a really hard time seeing even though it goes maybe 91, 92 miles an hour. Um, and it's really, you know, it gets on the hitters. So I think they've replaced O'Shea who would have cost him a few million with somebody that's actually, um, A much lesser cost.
[00:35:54] Mat Germain: He's like the minimum, uh, and he is on the 40 man roster now. So the Rays, I think are now at 38 players on the 40 man, but after the rule five, like last year, remember when they got, uh, or the year before, was it? They went out and they got Kevin Kelly from the Rockies after they selected them from the rule five.
[00:36:14] Mat Germain: Well, the Rays did the same thing this year. And they went out and got Mike vassal from the Mets. That's right. Yeah, he, he played for the Mets, but he was selected by the Phillies and, and they bought him basically from the Phillies for cash considerations. And I like Mike Vassell a lot. I, I actually featured him one, a few times for race trades when they were rumored to be, uh, dealing, uh, Brooks Raley.
[00:36:38] Mat Germain: I think the race ended up going for another left, uh, sorry. For a left handed pitcher who, um, what was his name? He's a really low arm angle guy. I'll think about it. Anyway, uh, but they ended up going for that instead of Mike Vassil. And I was like, oh, why not? Why didn't they just grab him? So I'm curious to see what they're going to do with Mike.
[00:36:58] Mat Germain: He's a big guy, had a down year last year. And I think they can really sharpen his stuff. And, and if they do, Have the impact that I think they'll be able to have on him. He's and MLB ready now Like he's a good backup plan should they decide to move somebody Like Zach Littell, right? And so then they would have that security behind that to say, okay We have somebody else that can jump in and the other thing is the Rays didn't lose Cole Wilcox or Logan Workman I was baffled by that.
[00:37:27] Mat Germain: I really thought that somebody was going to take a shot on them. But apparently they weren't, uh, they weren't ready to pull the trigger. They also got Dan Hammer from the Orioles, who's going to be, he was part of the minor league portion of the draft. Um, so you, you gotta love a righty with the name Hammer.
[00:37:46] Mat Germain: Bring out the hammer and then he comes out of the bullpen. And I don't know what, what song, if there's a song with a hammer in it, but, uh, they'll have to break that out. If ever he makes it to the show. Uh, they also made a minor league free agent signing of jake brentz And I know a lot of people won't remember the name But I remember watching him with the orioles and he is a legit, you know mlb type arm That is also mlb ready.
[00:38:13] Mat Germain: He's going to start off in double a on a minors deal But yeah, so they they added those four arms after losing four arms And I would say the four arms that they added are more mlb ready than the ones they lost So the raise improved significantly today
[00:38:29] Mark Corbett: , it's going to be an exciting year.
[00:38:30] Mark Corbett: There's no doubt about it. And that I wasn't surprised to see that they were the most active there, at least in the first round with the major league baseball, uh, level of the real 5 today, but she's my niece. Yeah. I'm my mind's jumping all over the place. One of them is, I think there's a free agent out there and I've been, he's just been praying on my mind all day.
[00:38:52] Mark Corbett: And that's Mr. Tommy Pham.
[00:38:57] Mark Corbett: And yeah,
[00:38:58] Mat Germain: he's the Pete Rose of this generation, you know, he's, he's worked himself out of jobs constantly. And, and I don't, you know, I don't know how you help that. The Rays tried it on for a while. You're right in terms of the type of attitude that he has and work ethic and the go get em ness of his attitude is what the Rays need.
[00:39:21] Mat Germain: But the amount of distractions that he brings along with that on the team is just might not be worth it.
[00:39:29] Mark Corbett: Now, you know, I mean, when we lost Willy Adames, I was saying, well, who's going to be the next one? And you could say that, uh, Brandon Lowe picked it up somewhat. And, but there's, you need a strong energy.
[00:39:41] Mark Corbett: And now Tommy's got an energy, but it's not the same as what, uh, what Willie had as far as bringing it. Packing up behind the players and slapping 'em on the back all the time? Uh, no. Uh, Tommy's more like the coach. He's riding you on the bench and telling you, you better get yourself in the game and you better get it right.
[00:39:58] Mark Corbett: You better, you know, this is what I'm doing. What are you doing? And I think, uh, uh, the tenacity he has and the demand he has of himself, he expects the same of anybody else that playing at the show level. So he's still out there. Who else? Uh, Carlos Santana's still out there, I believe Kevin Pilar. Those are some, I didn't think I'd still be seeing at this, seeing at this point.
[00:40:20] Mark Corbett: Whit Merrifield, huh? But those are some of the names I think that still have not, uh, signed a contract with the team as of yet. They're floating free agents at the moment.
[00:40:31] Mat Germain: Yeah, I think the Rays are really committed to keeping spots open for the guys they have coming up. I firmly believe Carson Williams and Chandler Simpson will be with the Rays come July.
[00:40:44] Mat Germain: Um, and so if you're looking at it that way, you're not going to want to spend much money on the free agent market to have to all of a sudden heal those guys away. I think they'll be looking for guys like they did last year with Ahmed Rosario and maybe who knows maybe they bring him back Uh, because he's he is a free agent still And he did enjoy his time with the race uh, but I I don't think they'll be spending much money on anyone unless They happen to be able to free up somebody in the trade because they it fits better so as a for instance if they wanted to deal with jeffrey springs because a free agent market for um, For pitchers, it's so expensive now that they're able to get more for Jeffrey Springs than they expected.
[00:41:31] Mat Germain: Then, uh, you know, that would free up some money that then maybe they can consider somebody that's a little bit pricier and that would be sticking around a little bit longer. Or they could just go for a one year guy. But the market's really expensive right now. Oh
[00:41:45] Mark Corbett: yeah.
[00:41:45] Mat Germain: For the Rays team that's going to be hosting, what, 11, 000 to 14, 000 people per game, maximum, in a minor league stadium, I don't know that they're willing to overextend themselves this year.
[00:41:57] Mat Germain: It's too bad, but I do think the Rays are the kind of team that if they are, uh, playing well all the way through June, they will add whoever, it is that they need. They'll go out and get that, uh, that talent. If they keep that open, then that'll help them.
[00:42:13] Mark Corbett: Yeah, well, go ahead. I'm sorry.
[00:42:15] Mat Germain: There is one guy that I, I would be elated if they brought in and that's Seya
[00:42:22] Mat Germain: Suzuki.
[00:42:23] Mat Germain: I really
[00:42:24] Mat Germain: feel he is the kind of outfielder that they need in left field. Having said that I, I started thinking about this the other day and I was like How different would that be than what they had in Randy or Arozarena? Like, is there much of a difference there? Like, I don't know. Are they replicating that effort or is it, is he really different?
[00:42:47] Mat Germain: And then the more I thought about it, I would say the difference is the hit tool. I think Seiya Suzuki is more of a hit tool kind of guy that will actually hit you 300. Uh, whereas Randy was pretty much a 250 kind of hitter.
[00:43:01] Mark Corbett: Yeah.
[00:43:02] Mat Germain: So I think that's where the difference would be. So Seiya Suzuki to me would be a guy that you can envision anchoring the Rays lineup and he's not blocking anyone from playing like, you know, unless you're envisioning Xavier Isaac eventually inheriting left field or right field.
[00:43:19] Mat Germain: Um, but at that point, I think it's only a two year deal that Seiya has. So, you know, if they're ready to move him, or if they want him to play more DH, or same thing for Xavier, then they're able to do that. So, I don't think he would be belonging to anyone. It's only two years, 19 million per year. It's something the race can afford.
[00:43:37] Mat Germain: Uh, and the talent that they would have to ship over, however, is the, you know, The stopping block. So that's why I started thinking about Randi Rosarena. I was like, okay So you get Aiden Smith as as the the main piece in a Randy Arozarena? Trade and then you use Aiden Smith to go get Seiya Suzuki. That doesn't make much sense to me It just doesn't make much sense at all.
[00:44:01] Mat Germain: So yeah, I didn't know where to go from there.
[00:44:04] Mark Corbett: I'm gonna jump somewhere else for a moment. We, before we, before we actually return, do you wanna dig much into the raise? Is there a topic that you really wanna make sure we hit to tonight?
[00:44:14] Mat Germain: Uh, no. No. I think we're good on the raise, other than what I've already said.
[00:44:18] Mark Corbett: Yeah. Good. And I don't, like I said, like I said, in response to you, I'm tired about talking about the other things, so we won't, yeah.
[00:44:25] Mark Corbett: So, okay. I agree. We'll wait till the 17th and we'll talk again. Exactly. . Okay. All right. Uh, you know, I'm looking at all of the trades, I'm looking at the free agent signings and one idea, I don't know that I would see, and that was a guy coming back into the game. I'm talking about Terry Francona. I didn't think I'd see him back with another team, but now His
[00:44:56] Mat Germain: health, I hope his health is good.
[00:44:58] Mat Germain: That's more than anything. Cause I know that was part of the deal in Cleveland, uh, with some of the health issues he had. So as long as he's good to go and I think he'll enjoy his time and everybody loves to talk to him.
[00:45:12] Mark Corbett: Oh, Cincinnati is going to absolutely dig him. I mean, how can you not like Terry Francona?
[00:45:17] Mark Corbett: The man's he's a nut for one thing. And. Yeah, and you see how he and Kevin Cash pick on one another all the time, old friends and such, but I don't know, I didn't necessarily expect him to come back, and it wasn't because I thought health would be a thing that would keep him out, I thought he was just, he was ready to retire, but I guess not.
[00:45:39] Mat Germain: So I think an interesting point to make here, the Rays have a lot of trades made with Cleveland, and a lot of it was because of the relationship Kevin Cash has with Terry Francona. So it'll be interesting to see if there's an uptick in trades between the Rays and the Reds.
[00:45:58] Mark Corbett: I'll be curious to see how that plays out too, my friend, but jeez, my knees. You know, there, there's a couple of things kind of off the bend of what we'd normally talk about the show, but as you know, I'm telling you more and more about what's happening with women in, in baseball. And I noticed that, um, thinking about what people are getting paid and thinking about Soto, I was thinking about actually in basketball, Caitlin Clark, and I was saw that.
[00:46:28] Mark Corbett: A card rookie Carter hers. So the other day for 234, 850. Yeah,
[00:46:37] Mat Germain: that is crazy. I didn't know that.
[00:46:40] Mark Corbett: Yeah. And now take it. She's 22 years old now and she's signed a contract worth 338, 000. So she's going to be making more than the card, but it's going to take her three years to earn it. And it's a, yeah, you could, you could say that.
[00:46:56] Mark Corbett: At least it take her two two and a half years to make what it's going to get that card It's it's it's insane, but we know a lot of players. She's getting a lot more I think in the name image and likeness So we'll see how that does for her as well there Another thing I want to mention too as far as women in baseball is mlb does a lot of different things And what am I know they're doing during the winter? Meetings is they had Project or actually a forum called take the field where a few days they have several women come in and they, they meet other baseball organizations. They have conversations with people who are in the industry and people, you know, helps them find positions, whether it be looking in analytics, baseball operations, coaching, player development, scouting, umpiring, all these different roles and Hoping to see to grow diversity in Major League Baseball with more and more women in some of these roles.
[00:47:51] Mark Corbett: So we'll see how that plays out to Uh, let's see what else I had on here, but I want to mention too, we're going to have, uh, we had a couple of women on here for a while back from the international women's baseball center. One of them is Dr. Leslie Heaphy and she's at Kent state. I'm going to try to get her back on the show.
[00:48:15] Mark Corbett: Matt, because while she was able to talk about the center, I didn't realize until this week, she was actually on the hall of fame Eras committee., she's a historian, but she was one of the folks who was, uh, you know, helping picking out Parker and Allen for this year's, uh, hall of fame on that. So that's, uh, that's pretty neat one too.
[00:48:35] Mark Corbett: That's awesome. Yeah, yep, yep, yep, yep, yep. I'm trying to think what other little nuggets I wanted to get. We talked about Vladdy getting the Canadian, O'Neill award for the, uh, Canada. And I'm really curious to see, you know, not getting too much into it, but Manfred was here in Tampa this past week.
[00:48:57] Mark Corbett: And I kind of wonder, we talked before about him retiring in 2030 and expansion. And I am going to be curious to see. If we're looking at Nashville, if we're looking at Montreal, whether we're going to be looking at Salt Lake City, um, I'm, I'm curious to see where we wind up with, with all those possibilities in the future.
[00:49:20] Mat Germain: Yeah, I think, you know, we can almost see the writing on the wall, but I know there'll be an announcement at some point. Um, it's really hard. To stand up a group out of the blue, right? A lot of the groundwork that needs to be done Needs to be vetted and and completed and trust has to be built in I think you know, there's a a relationship that the owners have between themselves.
[00:49:48] Mat Germain: There's a reason why Uh, some people don't want certain owners in and other ones do um but You know, when you're looking around at which team has been vetted the most for a expansion team, uh, the Montreal, because of the sister city concept that the Rays had going, got completely vetted. All their levels of government got vetted.
[00:50:12] Mat Germain: The plans, the transportation, the whole gamut. Was vetted by a major league baseball. I don't know what the ownership commitment to put a bid in for a new franchise. I don't feel personally from what I heard after the sister city concept was squashed. I don't feel that that commitment is there from Stephen Bronfman.
[00:50:36] Mat Germain: I think he sees it more as a hobby and a place to actually, you know, filter some money and have, you know, the love, you know, that the, that he has for Major League Baseball and the Expos kind of feed into it. But I don't feel like it's the same kind of commitment as what you would get from Steve Cohen.
[00:50:54] Mat Germain: Montreal is getting a brand new roof, however, 870 million roof on that stadium. So when you look at it that way, the investment that they would have to put in to renovate the inside, you know, you could say 500 to 700 million. Uh, at that point, if you're purchasing a franchise from somebody else, instead of bidding for a brand new one, I think the cost will be lower.
[00:51:19] Mat Germain: You know, if they were to purchase the White Sox I mentioned before, or another franchise, regardless of which one it is. Um, You know, it would probably be less than trying to outbid Salt Lake City and Nashville for a franchise. Um, so I think, to me, those three teams deserve, or those three cities deserve a team.
[00:51:40] Mat Germain: I just don't know exactly how it happens. You could say also that the Las Vegas move is not guaranteed yet. It seems to be heading in the right direction, but there's still hurdles to cross. Same as there are for the Rays. So, uh, it'll be interesting to see how it shakes out, but I, I have a feeling that Montreal is going to get a team that would not be spending 870 million on a new roof for no reason.
[00:52:07] Mat Germain: I feel like there's something else in the background in the works, and that the, the fact that the government paid for that on their own without any team interest whatsoever. is just a telltale sign to me, along with improving the metro system and the transportation to the stadium to add on to that.
[00:52:26] Mat Germain: Salt Lake City to me is the most automatic. I think regardless they get an expansion. I know Nashville is great. Maybe they get the move franchise. I don't know. But I, I, I feel like Nashville, or sorry, Salt Lake, in terms of a sports environment and what they are building and the uniqueness of their franchises that they have there and all the network that they have to build into it.
[00:52:51] Mat Germain: Um, I, I, I just think there'll be a seamless transition and they need another presence in the center of the United States. Like, it can't just all be, you know. 1, 2, 3, 4 teams. They need a little bit more coverage. is the best way to put it. And some better rivalries for those teams as well.
[00:53:11] Mark Corbett: Well, I, I see expansion as a great thing and I hope that, uh, hope Rob does see it about 2030, 'cause I'd like to see that too.
[00:53:19] Mark Corbett: And I, any other nuggets you would like to drop about winter meetings week?
[00:53:25] Mat Germain: I just can't believe the money ,
[00:53:27] Mat Germain: you know.
[00:53:30] Mat Germain: You're talking about, , two players adding up to a billion dollars. So, you know, Mark, we're best under. So, Soto and Fried, together. And that, you had, you still, now they're talking about 300 million for Corbin Burnes.
[00:53:45] Mat Germain: Because of how much, and they're saying 9 to 10 years for a contract form. Corbin Burnes? Really? Like, if we're, You're getting a 10 year
[00:53:55] Mark Corbett: contract
[00:53:56] Mat Germain: for pitchers? I just don't understand that one. So somebody's going to overpay massively for that guy. So yeah, just the money in baseball, I mean, the ridiculousness of it all.
[00:54:07] Mat Germain: And, and at the same time, I'm also curious about some of the trades that are still pending. Like if Nolan Arenado, where is he going to go? He gave a list of six teams. He's going to make just under 40 million himself. Um, and, and somebody said the angels should go and get him and just release, uh, Anthony Rendon.
[00:54:26] Mat Germain: But I'm like, really, like you're going to pay two guys 80 million to play third base and only have one on the team.
[00:54:36] Mark Corbett: It's it's nuts.
[00:54:38] Mat Germain: That's crazy. It's nuts.
[00:54:41] Mark Corbett: Yeah. I'll just, I'll say one last thing I'm curious about too is seeing where if Charlie Morton, I think at this point he's still unsigned. It's nothing locking him in with the Atlanta Braves for 2025, which was kind of surprising to me, but there's a, there's a whole lot of shaking going on and what we can talk about that in future episodes here, a baseball biz on deck, but it has been anything but a boring week.
[00:55:08] Mat Germain: Yeah. I do want to add one last thing. Um, I was listening and then when everything was just starting off and then I've been watching the angels a lot because I think they've learned a lot of hard lessons and their ownership group has and bringing in Ron Washington was the most brilliant move I've seen a franchise make and just the infectious nature he has.
[00:55:31] Mat Germain: And you can tell when he speaks about his players, how accountable he keeps yeah. And how infectious he wants. Them to be in terms of their passion for the game He doesn't want guys hanging around and being like, oh, well, maybe this maybe that no He wants winners and he wants guys that are hungry that want to play hard every day and that are teachable And so I'm just happy to see them making some intelligent moves, being aggressive, bringing in guys that they know they can start building around.
[00:56:05] Mat Germain: And so with that, I'm hoping for a completely healthy Mike Trout season, like just get Ron, you know, one star to work with the build it around. And, and so that's my, my scoop of the week is just Ron Washington. I can listen to all day talk about the game. He's just a lot of fun.
[00:56:25] Mark Corbett: Yeah. Yeah. He's, he's got a lot of passion and he, and I look forward to seeing more and more from that man.
[00:56:32] Mark Corbett: Alrighty, brother. Well, there we have it. Once again, that's Mr. Matt Germain and I'm Mark Corbett. We're both here with you on baseball biz on deck. You can find us here. You can find us on baseball biz on deck. com I heart radio, Apple radio. Oh, we're everywhere. Spotify. Anything, anything. Where are you going to be, Matt?
[00:56:52] Mark Corbett: I don't know where I'm at. Uh, anyway, thank you all again for joining us here today. And we look forward to talking with y'all again, real soon. Special thanks to XtakeRUX for the music rocking forward.
